[Busmgrs] 2015-16 Estimates

[ELLIOTT Michael S - ODE]

Dear Business Managers,

The 2015-16 estimates have been posted to the web.

Districts: http://www.ode.state.or.us/services/ssf/esd-15-16-estimate-as-of-3-16-16.pdf
ADMw breakouts: http://www.ode.state.or.us/services/ssf/transparency-estimate-3-16-16-hrs.pdf
ESD estimates: http://www.ode.state.or.us/services/ssf/esd-15-16-estimate-as-of-3-16-16.pdf

These estimates are the latest updates for 2015-16. These updates include:

1.      Using second period ADMr
2.      Applying the December to June ratio to second period ADMr
3.      Using latest updates to local revenue provided by districts in their Estimate of Membership and Revenue data
4.      Updating Foster, Neglected and Delinquent counts
5.      Updating poverty data to move from 2013 SAIPE data to 2014 SAIPE data

Please note that the shift from 2013 to 2014 SAIPE data is causing a shift in poverty for individual districts. This is expected. The SAIPE data updates poverty for each school district on a yearly basis. As the economy continues to improve, we are seeing a drop overall in state level poverty.

An individual district, however, may see a decrease or increase in poverty. Even if the state as a whole is improving, individual districts may see different results. So while the data is more accurate it may not seem as consistent as the change occurs year to year.

SAIPE data models poverty based on the U.S. Census Bureau's definition of poverty. That means that if, in the model, a child lives in a family that is at 110% of the federal poverty threshold that child would not be considered to be living in poverty. That does not necessarily mean that the child does not need additional services or that they are not continuing to receive free and reduced lunches. It means that in the model because the family's income exceeded the threshold the child is no longer counted as living in a family in poverty.

Please also remember that a swing in poverty may not directly translate into a loss of weight for the district. Each child in poverty is weighted at 0.25 according to the statute. Combine the 0.25 weight with extended ADMw and a district may not experience any decrease or increase in revenue despite a change in the poverty counts for the district.

 ODE has heard from several districts that these sharp swings may not be beneficial for the state as a whole. ODE is willing to see if there are ways to smooth the swings while still increasing the overall accuracy of the information. The previous system did not track the changing economy of the state and the new system provides a better more accurate picture of how poverty is changing in the state. It is important to ensure that poverty tracks the changing economic conditions of the state.

Please let me know if you have any questions.

Thank you,
Michael

Michael Elliott
State School Fund Coordinator | Office of Finance & Administration|School Finance & School Facilities| Oregon Department of Education
Office: 503.947.5627 | Fax: 503.378.5156 | *michael.s.elliott at state.or.us




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