SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Wednesday, December 1, 2010       2:35 PM      Jim Little



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638


    THURSDAY
A weak upper disturbance moves across the region.  Skies will be cloudy with light rain or snow.  The snow level will be about 3000 feet.    Transport winds will be generally southwesterly switching to south-southeasterly during the day. The atmosphere will be quite stable and smoke dispersal conditions will be poor.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (FRIDAY - SUNDAY)
An upper low in the Gulf of Alaska drops southeast to a position about 500 miles off the Oregon coast Thursday.  This will induce a ridge over the Pacific Northwest. The atmosphere will again be very stable.  Expect poor ventilation conditions.  On Friday the upper low moves to about 600 miles west of San Francisco, California.  The ridge axis shifts east and this will allow the low to spread some moisture northward from California and Nevada.  Precipitation amounts should be very light, but the atmosphere will remain stable and ventilation conditions remain poor.  The remains of the upper low move closer to the California coast on Saturday.  Upper flow over the Pacific Northwest goes to nearly due southerly.  With warm air aloft and plenty of cloud cover and low sun angle for minimal surface heating, maximum mixing heights remain low and most of the region will experience poor ventilation conditions.



2.  DISPERSION



THURSDAY



Zone 630 and 632:

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rising to 1000 - 2000 ft then lowering below 1000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to WNW to NNW and decreases to 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.



Zone 633 - 638:

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rising to 1000 - 2000 ft then remains near 1000 - 2000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then shifts to WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the evening.



OUTLOOK:



FRIDAY

In the west mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1900 ft during the afternoon.  In the east mixing height 1000 to 1800 ft during the morning lowering below 1000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming ESE to S at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.



SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 2000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 2000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, December 2, 2010.

    ==================================================================



Zone 630 and 632:

Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 10:00am.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the SSW through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the SSW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 2:30pm.



Zone 633 - 638:

Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 10:00am.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the SSW through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the SSW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 2:30pm.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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