SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) Northeast Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Saturday, May 15, 2010       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638


SUNDAY

The upper-level ridge is forecast to progress east of the state with increasing southwesterly flow aloft over central and eastern Oregon.  The surface thermal trough will shift eastward, to near the Idaho border, by late afternoon, with onshore flow penetrating eastward into the western zones.  Morning inversions will give way to fair to good afternoon mixing. Although afternoon transport winds may turn westerly, in the western zones, they should remain southerly over the eastern zones. A moistening southwesterly flow aloft will combine with daytime heating to trigger scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  Temperatures will remain above normal.

    OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)

The flow aloft is forecast to become increasingly moist and unstable Monday, as it turns southerly in response to trough diving into northern California.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely with cooler temperatures.  Afternoon mixing should be good with mostly southerly transport winds.  However, winds will be highly variable near showers and thunderstorms.  The showers will move east of the region by Tuesday afternoon with a drier weak westerly flow aloft.  The thermal trough will move well east of the state with onshore flow giving transport winds more of a westerly component.   The flow aloft, and at transport level, is forecast to turn southwesterly on Wednesday, ahead of an approaching cold front.


2.  DISPERSION



SUNDAY



Zone 630 and 632:

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 1000 - 2000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind SSE to SW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to SW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon then decreases to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.



Zone 633 - 638:

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 4000 - 5000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 1000 - 2000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind ESE to SSE at 8 - 12 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind decreases to SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.



Surface wind ESE to SSE at 5 - 9 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.



OUTLOOK:



MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 to 4500 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.



TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 to 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday, May 16, 2010.

    ==================================================================



Zone 630 and 632:

Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SSE through WNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.



Zone 633 - 638:

Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the ESE through SSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles to the ESE through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Complete ignitions by 5 p.m.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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