SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) Northeast Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Friday, October 1, 2010       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638


SATURDAY


The strong upper-level ridge over the Pacific Northwest will weaken and continue to slowly shift eastward, with the ridge axis over Idaho and western Montana.  Stagnant ventilation conditions will persist with generally light transport winds and warm air aloft suppressing mixing heights.  Overnight inversions will trap smoke in valleys.



OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)



The upper-level ridge will shift into Wyoming and eastern Montana by Sunday, with increasing southwesterly flow aloft. The surface thermal trough will progress eastward, into Idaho.  Increasingly onshore transport winds and cooling aloft will improve ventilation conditions Sunday afternoon.  Some elevated instability may trigger showers or thunderstorms by late in the day.



As an upper-level trough moves onshore, scattered showers should spread across the region Sunday night and Monday.  Daytime temperatures will dramatically cool, on Monday, with increasing northwesterly transport winds and much-improved mixing.

Transport winds are forecast to turn northerly by Monday night, and northeasterly on Tuesday, as a ridge of high pressure begins building back over the west coast.  Inversions are likely Tuesday morning with some sunshine providing enough warming for good afternoon mixing.



2.  DISPERSION



SATURDAY

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3000 - 4000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.



OUTLOOK:



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.



MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3300 to 4300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.



TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 to 2700 ft by late morning rising to 3300 to 4300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NNE to ENE at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, October 2 and 3, 2010.

    ==================================================================



For Saturday:



Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 10 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m.



For Sunday:



Delay ignitions until 10 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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