SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) Northeast Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Saturday, October 9, 2010       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638



SUNDAY



A strong southwesterly jet stream will push an active cold front onshore in the morning.  Rain will increase, from west to east, across the region during the afternoon.  Increasing southwesterly transport winds and frontal mixing with make for good afternoon smoke dispersal conditions.  Winds will veer to northwesterly, in the wake of the cold front, Sunday evening.  Post-frontal shower activity will be confined mainly to the mountains, by late Sunday night, because the air aloft will not cool much.  The snow level should stay above 7000 feet.


OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)


The flow aloft is forecast to dry out and turn northwesterly on Monday.  There may still be a few mountain showers in the eastern zones early.  Northwesterly transport winds will weaken and turn more northerly, with clearing skies providing enough heating for fair afternoon smoke dispersal conditions.



As the upper-level ridge continues to build over the region, strong surface-based inversions are likely Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.  Areas of morning valley fog are possible; depending somewhat on the amount of rain that falls on Sunday.  Mostly sunny skies are expected in the afternoons, but low mixing heights and light transport winds will likely make for poor ventilation conditions.



2.  DISPERSION



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.



Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind shifts to NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to SW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon then shifts to WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.



OUTLOOK:



MONDAY

Mixing height 1500 to 2500 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday, October 10, 2010.

    ==================================================================



Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the S through NW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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