SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) Northeast Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Saturday, May 21, 2011       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638


SUNDAY

An upper-level trough is forecast to extend from the Gulf of Alaska southeastward to over the Pacific Northwest. The second in a series of embedded weather disturbances will rotate onshore during the day.  Southwesterly flow aloft will keep skies mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers, mainly over higher terrain.

High temperatures will likely be as much as 5 degrees below normal, with cooling aloft maintaining fair to good daytime mixing.  Transport winds will turn mostly northwesterly.

OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)

A moderately strong upper-level trough will rotate another embedded weather disturbance onshore Monday.  This system looks to be a little stronger than the previous two, with a more southerly flow aloft rotating additional moisture and unstable air into the region.  The chance of showers will increase along with a chance of afternoon thundershowers.  Temperatures will continue to run about 5 degrees below average.  Daytime mixing should be fair to good with northwesterly transport winds.

The upper-level trough is forecast to weaken by Tuesday, as it moves off to the east.  A weak and transitory upper-level ridge will slowly push the shower activity to the east, but temperatures will remain about 5 degrees below normal. Daytime mixing will remain fair to good with slackening transport winds.

An impressive upper-level trough is forecast to approach the coastline on Wednesday, as a strengthening southwesterly jet stream directs an active cold front across the state.  Clouds will increase with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.  Brisk southerly transport winds will turn southwesterly late with good daytime mixing.



2.  DISPERSION



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2000 - 3000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Transport wind increases to NW to N at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to NW to N at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon and evening.



OUTLOOK:



MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 to 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.



TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 to 4500 ft by late morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning becoming S to SSW at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday, May 22, 2011.

    ==================================================================



Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the WSW through NNE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles to the WSW through NNE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.



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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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