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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED: Saturday, November 13, 2010 2:35 PM Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>SUNDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpFirst style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>A broad upper-level ridge will continue to amplify just offshore. A warm front is forecast to slowly weaken over Oregon, as the flow aloft turns from northwesterly to more northerly and begins to dry out. Skies should remain cloudy with a chance of light rain. The snow level will rise to near 7,000 feet. Warm air aloft will keep mixing heights suppressed with marginal smoke dispersal conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>The offshore ridge will begin to flatten on Monday, allowing a weak weather system to slide down the southern British Columbia coastline. That will maintain mostly cloudy skies with some showers. The snow level will drop slightly to 6-7000 feet. Ventilation conditions should improve to marginal to fair.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Strong northwesterly flow aloft is forecast for Tuesday with a weak weather system likely bringing some morning showers and blustery winds. A transitory ridge will decrease the showers in the afternoon. The snow level drop slightly to near 5000 feet. Smoke dispersal conditions should be good.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>The flow aloft will turn westerly on Wednesday, as an impressive weather system makes its way southward along the British Columbia coastline. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. The snow level may rise slightly, ahead of the approaching cold front, but increasing south to southwesterly transport winds should make for fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpLast style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SUNDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 - 2200 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 2300 - 3300 ft then lowers to 1600 - 2600 ft during the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning. Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 14 - 24 mph during the afternoon and evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind WSW to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning. Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon and evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MONDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising to 2600 to 3600 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WNW to NW at 9 - 21 mph. Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>TUESDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 3800 to 4800 ft during the morning lowering to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WNW to NW at 18 - 32 mph during the morning becoming W to WNW at 12 - 22 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>WEDNESDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday, November 14, 2010.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> ==================================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Delay ignitions until 9 a.m. Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the WNW through NNW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the W through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> =========================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> 2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> please request a special forecast. Avoid calling before<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> This forecast is available on the Internet at: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>