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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED: Wednesday, November 24, 2010 2:35 PM Nick Yonker<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>****Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, Friday furlough, and little burning over the weekend, the smoke management office will not be staffed again until Monday, November 29<sup>th</sup>. If there are landowners thinking of burning over the holiday weekend, please call to coordinate by 4 p.m. this afternoon.****<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Upper level ridge is building into the region today and will gradually moderate the arctic air that’s been over the state since yesterday. Ridge will slowly flatten on Thanksgiving as the next frontal system approaches. Cloud cover today is mainly the result of a strong jet stream coming down from the north which is part of our current cold spell. Higher clouds should slowly dissipate overnight as the ridge moves inland. Air mass is stabilizing and may lead to some fog formation in the valleys tomorrow morning. With residual surface cold air and warming aloft, along with only light wind flow, expect very poor smoke dispersion.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> OUTLOOK (FRIDAY - SUNDAY):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Forming upper level trough in the eastern Pacific will eject a front into the state on Friday, bringing increasing clouds Friday with a chance of moisture later in the day. The front will gradually scour the air shed Friday and into early Saturday. However, the air mass will not likely destabilize completely until Saturday afternoon when the upper level trough arrives. Snow level will rise to near 5000 ft Thursday night and Friday, then lower to near the surface on Saturday. Upper trough moves off to the east on Sunday with a minor ridge moving in during the evening. Air mass should remain mostly unstable on Sunday then stabilize Sunday evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>THURSDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1700 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 1300 - 2300 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind SSE to SW at 6 - 10 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon and evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>FRIDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming S to SSW at 14 - 28 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SATURDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 16 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SUNDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 3200 to 4200 ft during the morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WNW to NW at 18 - 32 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SW to W at 9 - 15 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, November 25, 2010.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> ==================================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion. Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the SE through SW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the SE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 2 p.m. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> =========================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> 2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> please request a special forecast. Avoid calling before<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> This forecast is available on the Internet at: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>