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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED: Thursday, April 21, 2011 2:35 PM Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>FRIDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>A weak upper-level ridge of high pressure is forecast to bring clearing skies and dry but cool conditions. It will be an unseasonably cold morning, with minimums mostly in the 20s. Even with mostly sunny skies, afternoon highs will still be about 10 degrees below normal. With the freezing level only rising to about 4500 feet, afternoon heating will provide good mixing. Transport winds will slacken and turn mostly southeasterly.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>The upper-level ridge now appears as if it will remain strong enough to bring another mostly sunny day on Saturday. Temperatures should warm to within about 5 degrees of normal. The freezing level will only rise to about 6500 feet, so the air aloft will remain cool enough for good afternoon mixing. Transport winds will light and variable.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>The upper-level ridge is forecast to weaken and shift east of the region Easter Sunday, with a strengthening westerly jet stream directing a weak cold front onshore. Light rain and snow will likely develop in the afternoon, with the snow level dropping to near 4500 feet. Precipitation amounts should mostly be less than .10 inches. Look for good daytime mixing with transport winds increasing, and turning mostly westerly, in the afternoon and evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>A stronger cold front is forecast to come onshore Sunday night and early Monday. This system will likely bring slightly greater precipitation amounts to the region Monday, with the snow level dropping below 4000 feet by evening. Mixing should be good with brisk mostly westerly transport winds.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>FRIDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 630 and 632:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Transport wind increases to ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 633 - 638:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2000 - 3000 ft during the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SATURDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SUNDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MONDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 to 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to W at 18 - 32 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 22 - 38 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, April 22, 2011.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> ==================================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 630 and 632:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Avoid ignitions within 15 miles in all directions of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 6 p.m. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 633 - 638:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Avoid ignitions within 12 miles in all directions of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> =========================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> 2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> please request a special forecast. Avoid calling before<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> This forecast is available on the Internet at: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>