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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED: Sunday, May 1, 2011 2:35 PM Jim Little</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> MONDAY</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>A fairly active cold front reaches the coastline early Monday morning slowly spreading rain eastward across Oregon. Rain reaches central Oregon mid day and northeast Oregon by late afternoon. Transport winds will be generally south-southwesterly until the rain arrives when they will shirt to westerly. Expect good smoke dispersal conditions with maximum mixing heights at 5000 feet or better. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY – THURSDAY)</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>The upper trough associated with Monday’s front moves east Tuesday and higher pressure builds offshore. Look for dry weather and generally northwesterly transport winds. With afternoon mixing heights topping out above 5000 feet smoke dispersal conditions should be good. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>The upper ridge axis moves directly over western Oregon Wednesday morning. For most of northeast Oregon maximum mixing heights will none-the-less remain high and smoke dispersal conditions good. Expect mostly northwesterly transport winds. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>By Thursday a weak upper trough moves over the region as the upper ridge moves east. Cooler air aloft ensures high maximum mixing heights for good smoke dispersal conditions. Transport winds will be generally west-southwest to west-northwest. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MONDAY</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 630 and 632:</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 2900 - 3900 ft during the morning. Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 2900 - 3900 ft during the evening.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning. Transport wind shifts to WNW to NW at 14 - 28 mph during the afternoon and evening.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind SSW to SW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning. Surface wind shifts to WNW to NW at 12 - 22 mph during the afternoon then decreases to WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the evening.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 633 - 638:</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 3700 - 4700 ft during the morning. Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 1100 - 2100 ft during the evening.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind SSE to S at 13 - 25 mph during the morning. Transport wind decreases to S to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon then shifts to W to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the evening.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind SE to S at 10 - 20 mph during the morning. Surface wind shifts to WSW to WNW and decreases to 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and evening.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>TUESDAY</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 2600 to 3600 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind W to NW at 8 - 14 mph. Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>WEDNESDAY</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>THURSDAY</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Monday, May 2, 2011.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> ==================================================================</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 630 and 632:</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SSW through NW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles to the SSW through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. Watch for shifting transport winds. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 633 - 638:</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SE through NW of SSRAs. Watch for shifting transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary. Complete ignitions by 4:00pm. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> =========================================================</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> 2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> please request a special forecast. Avoid calling before</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> This forecast is available on the Internet at: </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>