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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED: Friday, May 6, 2011 2:35 PM Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:115%;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>-<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Issued 7-days-a-week through the spring burning season - <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SATURDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='line-height:115%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'>A cold front will be exiting the region in the early morning with an impressive upper-level trough coming onshore in the afternoon. A chance of light rain in the morning will give way to increasing showers in the afternoon. Precipitation totals could exceed one-tenth of an inch. Clouds will hold high temperatures slightly below normal, with the snow level at 5-6000 feet. Mixing should be fair to good with increasing southwesterly transport winds.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='line-height:115%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='line-height:115%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'>On Sunday, the unseasonably cold upper-level trough is forecast to be centered over Oregon. Rain and snow showers will be numerous with widespread precipitation totals over .10 inches and some areas picking up over .25 inches. The snow level will drop to 4-5000 feet. Surface temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal, but cooling aloft should provide good afternoon mixing. Transport winds will veer to northwesterly.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='line-height:115%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='line-height:115%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'>By Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to drop southeastward, to over Nevada, with a drier north-northeasterly flow aloft developing over Oregon. Showers will taper off, but ample clouds will continue to circulate around the parent upper-level trough and over northeastern Oregon. Cool surface temperatures and some warming aloft will suppress mixing heights slightly, with brisk northerly transport winds.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='line-height:115%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='line-height:115%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'>Tuesday looks mostly dry and warmer, as a transitory upper-level ridge moves onshore and over Oregon. Skies should clear, from west to east, in the afternoon, with a threat of a morning shower near the Idaho border. Light northerly transport winds may turn weakly onshore in the late afternoon. Daytime temperatures will recover to about normal, with fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>SATURDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph during the morning. Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 14 - 26 mph during the afternoon and evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning. Surface wind shifts to WSW to WNW and increases to 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon and evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>SUNDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind W to NW at 7 - 13 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 12 - 22 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>MONDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 1600 to 2600 ft during the morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NW to N at 12 - 24 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 16 - 30 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind NW to NNW at 10 - 20 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>TUESDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2700 to 3700 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, May 7, 2011.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> ==================================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SSW through NW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the SSW through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> =========================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> 2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> please request a special forecast. Avoid calling before<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> This forecast is available on the Internet at: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>