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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED: Friday, May 13, 2011 2:35 PM Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SATURDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>An offshore upper-level low-pressure system is forecast to slowly move closer to the southern Oregon coast. Increasing southeasterly flow aloft will direct more moisture into the region. A surface thermal trough will shift over the region with daytime heating destabilizing the air mass and leading to widespread afternoon shower and thundershower development. Afternoon temperatures should warm to as much as 5-10 degrees above normal, especially east, before the showers quickly cool things off. Daytime mixing will be fair to good with mostly southeasterly transport winds. However, winds will be gusty and highly variable near showers and thunderstorms.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>The upper-level trough is forecast to come onshore Sunday and make camp over the Pacific Northwest, slowly weakening Monday and Tuesday. That will park a very cool and moist air mass over Oregon. Expect numerous showers Sunday, along with a chance of thunderstorms. Showers will continue through Tuesday but will be on the decrease. The snow level should drop to 4-5000 feet, with Sunday’s maximum surface temperatures plunging about 20 degrees, from Saturday’s highs. By Tuesday, high temperatures should recover to within 5-10 degrees of normal, but snow levels will only lift about 1000 feet. Cold air aloft will create fair to good afternoon mixing with mostly southwesterly transport winds.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>SATURDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 630 and 632:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3500 - 4500 ft then lowers to 3000 - 4000 ft during the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Transport wind increases to SE to S at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon then shifts to NW to N at 8 - 12 mph during the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain through the day. Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 633 - 638:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3500 - 4500 ft then lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind ESE to SSE at 6 - 10 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Transport wind shifts to ENE to ESE at 8 - 12 mph during the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning. Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the afternoon then increases to NE to E at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>SUNDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 to 2800 ft by late morning rising to 3600 to 4600 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SW at 7 - 13 mph. Surface wind SSE to SW at 6 - 10 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>MONDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>TUESDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 to 4500 ft by late morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind light and variable.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, May 14, 2011.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> ==================================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 630 and 632:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Avoid ignitions within 12 miles in all directions of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 633 - 638:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the NE through S of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs. Watch for shifting transport winds. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> =========================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> 2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> please request a special forecast. Avoid calling before<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> This forecast is available on the Internet at: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>