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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED: Wednesday, May 18, 2011 2:35 PM Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>THURSDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>The upper-level trough that has brought unseasonably cool and damp conditions to the region for the past several days will weaken and drift southeastward. It is forecast to stretch from South Dakota to southern California by the afternoon. The counter-clockwise circulation around it, however, will continue to spin some clouds across northeastern Oregon, with the possibility of a stray shower, mainly east and over higher terrain. Meanwhile, a weak ridge of high pressure will build just offshore, with a drier northerly flow progressing from west-to-east across the region. Continued drying and warming of the air mass will lift the freezing level to 7-8000 feet.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>After a chilly early morning, afternoon clearing should help warm maximum temperatures to near average. It will remain cool enough aloft for good daytime mixing with mostly northerly transport winds.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>The upper-level ridge axis is forecast to move onshore Friday morning and slowly drift eastward, to near to Idaho border, by evening. Skies should become partly cloudy with just a risk of a mountain shower east. Maximum temperatures will be near to slightly above average, which will make for good afternoon mixing. Transport winds will be north-northwesterly.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>On Saturday a weak upper-level trough is forecast to come onshore, along with a surface cold front. The weakening cold front is forecast to bring increasing clouds and a chance of showers in the afternoon, with west to northwesterly transport winds. Since the cooler air will not arrive until late in the day, maximum temperatures should climb to slightly above normal. Daytime mixing should be fair to good.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Westerly flow aloft is forecast to bring mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers on Sunday. Temperatures will cool to about 5 degrees below average. Daytime mixing should be good with northwesterly transport winds.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>THURSDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 3200 - 4200 ft during the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind N to NNE at 11 - 21 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind decreases to NNW to NNE at 6 - 11 mph during the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>FRIDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>SATURDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 to 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>SUNDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, May 19, 2011.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> ==================================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the NNW through NE of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles to the NW through NE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> =========================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> 2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> please request a special forecast. Avoid calling before<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> This forecast is available on the Internet at: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>