From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Oct 1 14:27:52 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Fri, 1 Oct 2010 14:27:52 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Friday, October 1, 2010 2:40 PM Pete Parsons 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 SATURDAY The strong upper-level ridge over the Pacific Northwest will weaken and continue to slowly shift eastward, with the ridge axis over Idaho and western Montana. Transport winds will remain light with warm air aloft continuing to suppress mixing heights. Ventilation conditions will be marginal. Overnight inversions will trap smoke near the ground. OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY) The upper-level ridge will shift into Wyoming and eastern Montana by Sunday, with increasing southwesterly flow aloft. The surface thermal trough will progress eastward, into Idaho. Increasingly onshore transport winds and cooling aloft will improve ventilation conditions Sunday afternoon. Some elevated instability may trigger showers or thunderstorms. As an upper-level trough moves onshore, scattered showers should spread across the region Sunday night and Monday. Daytime temperatures will dramatically cool, on Monday, with brisk northwesterly transport winds and good ventilation conditions. Transport winds are forecast to turn northerly by Monday night, and northeasterly on Tuesday, as a ridge of high pressure begins building back over the west coast. Inversions are likely Tuesday morning with some sunshine providing enough warming for good afternoon mixing. 2. DISPERSION SATURDAY Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3500 - 4500 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening. Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain. Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain. OUTLOOK: SUNDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2700 - 3700 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. MONDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind W to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. TUESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3700 - 4700 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NNE to NE at 9 - 15 mph. Surface wind N to NE at 5 - 9 mph. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, October 2 and 3, 2010. ================================================================== For Saturday: Avoid ignitions within 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. For Sunday: Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the S through WNW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the S through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Sun Oct 3 14:11:33 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Sun, 3 Oct 2010 14:11:33 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject) Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Sunday, October 3, 2010 2:40 PM Jim Little 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 MONDAY A full latitude upper level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest on Monday. The atmosphere aloft cools considerably for higher maximum mixing heights. By evening the axis of the trough will be over the Cascade crest and moving east. Moisture rotation northward from California ahead of the trough should produce areas of light rain. Transport winds should generally be from the northwest through north. EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY - THURSDAY) On Tuesday the southern portion of the upper trough cuts off as an upper level low over southern California leaving the Pacific Northwest under an upper level ridge oriented SW-NE. Warmer air aloft will suppress maximum mixing heights a bit. Winds will be generally northerly to north-northeasterly. On Wednesday the upper level low over California is nearly stationary and cut off from the main westerly flow aloft which is north of the Pacific Northwest. Surface temperatures should warm enough to push maximum mixing heights to around 5000 feet, however. The upper low over California weakens on Thursday and moves off to the northeast. Ventilation conditions remain good. 2. DISPERSION MONDAY Mixing height 1900 - 2900 ft during the morning. Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 1900 - 2900 ft during the evening. Transport wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 14 mph during the morning. Transport wind increases to NNW to NNE at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon and increases to N to NE at 20 - 34 mph during the evening. Surface wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Surface wind shifts to N to NE at 10 - 20 mph during the evening. OUTLOOK: TUESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 - 3200 ft by late morning rising to 3700 - 4700 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NNE to NE at 14 - 28 mph. Surface wind N to NE at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming NE to ENE at 13 - 25 mph during the afternoon. WEDNESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1100 - 2100 ft by late morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. THURSDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1100 - 2100 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Monday, October 4, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the NNW through NE of SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Oct 4 14:14:28 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Mon, 4 Oct 2010 14:14:28 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject) Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Monday, October 4, 2010 2:40 PM Jim Little 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 TUESDAY Monday's trough splits...a portion moves across central Canada and the rest becomes a cut-off low over southern California. An upper ridge develops offshore and noses into Washington while a surface thermal trough develops in the central valley of California. This will give a northeasterly flow most areas and dry weather for the region. Warmer air aloft with the ridge will suppress mixing heights. Smoke dispersal conditions will generally be fair to good. EXTENDED OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY) The upper level cut-off low remains over southern California on Wednesday as a thermal trough builds northward overnight Tuesday to off the SW Oregon Coast. Weather should remain dry. By Thursday afternoon the upper level low is pulling out over NE Nevada. This will bring a chance of showers to the area. Friday some scattered showers are still possible from the remains of the upper level low. Mixing heights will improve and transport winds will be generally southwesterly. 2. DISPERSION TUESDAY Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft during the morning. Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 3500 - 4500 ft during the evening. Transport wind N to NE at 10 - 22 mph during the morning. Transport wind increases to NE to ENE at 19 - 33 mph during the afternoon and evening. Surface wind N to NE at 8 - 14 mph during the morning. Surface wind increases to NE to ENE at 13 - 25 mph during the afternoon then decreases to NE to E at 10 - 20 mph during the evening. OUTLOOK: WEDNESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 - 2800 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NE to E at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming E to ESE at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon. THURSDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1900 - 2900 ft by late morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon. FRIDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, October 5, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the N through E of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the N through E in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Oct 5 14:48:48 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Tue, 5 Oct 2010 14:48:48 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject) Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Tuesday, October 5, 2010 2:40 PM Jim Little 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 WEDNESDAY A nearly stationary upper level low remains over southern California while the main Pacific jet stream is to the north, cutting into central British Columbia on Wednesday. Weather will be dry with temperatures running 4-6 degrees above average for the first week in October. High pressure means light transport winds with a tendency to SW through NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK (THURSDAY - SATURDAY) On Thursday the upper low over California kicks out to the northeast and weakens. The center of the low will be over about Salmon, Idaho by evening. Expect widespread showers as the low moves out. Temperatures fall to around 5-10 degrees below average and the lack of surface heating holds mixing heights down. Upper level flow goes westerly by Friday with a weak weather system moving into Washington early in the day. Moisture will stay well to the northeast so expect dry weather and improving ventilation conditions with warmer daytime temperatures again. Saturday will see dry weather and generally southerly to south-southwesterly transport winds. 2. DISPERSION WEDNESDAY Mixing height above 5000 ft during the morning and afternoon. Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft during the evening. Transport wind E to SE at 9 - 15 mph during the morning. Transport wind shifts to SW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening. Surface wind E to SE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning. Surface wind shifts to SW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening. OUTLOOK: THURSDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2800 - 3800 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind SW to W at 12 - 24 mph. Surface wind SW to W at 6 - 12 mph. FRIDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. SATURDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Wednesday, October 6, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 12 miles in all directions of SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary. Complete ignitions by 3:30pm. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Oct 6 14:30:11 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Wed, 6 Oct 2010 14:30:11 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject) Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Wednesday, October 6, 2010 2:40 PM Jim Little 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 THURSDAY An upper level low that was over California Wednesday tracks northeast across Nevada and thin into Idaho during the day. This will keep showers in the area but as the low moves to the east subsiding air behind it will suppress mixing heights a bit. Transport winds will be generally west-northwest to north-northwest. Smoke dispersal conditions will be marginal to fair. EXTENDED OUTLOOK (FRIDAY - SUNDAY) Thursday will see dry weather but increasing clouds during the day from a weather system moving into western Oregon. Rain from this system should hold off until overnight Thursday then spread eastward during the day on Saturday. Smoke dispersal conditions should be good on Friday, fair on Saturday. By Sunday Surface high pressure builds in from the west for dry weather. 2. DISPERSION THURSDAY Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 2500 - 3500 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind decreases to SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the evening. Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening. OUTLOOK: FRIDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. SATURDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. SUNDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 - 4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind ENE to E at 50 - 70 mph during the morning becoming NE to E at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Thursday, October 7, 2010. ================================================================== Unfavorable burning situation due to generally poor smoke dispersion. Delay ignitions until 10:00am. Avoid ignitions within 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the SSW through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 3:30pm. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Oct 7 15:04:50 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Thu, 7 Oct 2010 15:04:50 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Thursday, October 7, 2010 2:40 PM Pete Parsons 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 FRIDAY A blocking pattern in the upper-level flow will break down, as the trough over Nevada gets ejected eastward to over the northern Rockies. Clouds and showers associated with the Nevada low will push eastward with some sunbreaks helping to lift afternoon mixing heights. However, transport winds will remain fairly light. OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY) Two cold fronts will bring spread clouds back over the region this weekend with rain likely by Sunday...especially north. Brisk southwesterly transport winds will veer to westerly, in the wake of the second cold front, Sunday evening. The flow aloft will dry out and turn northwesterly on Monday. Transport winds will turn north-northeasterly, with subsidence aloft suppressing afternoon mixing heights. 2. DISPERSION FRIDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 1000 - 2000 ft during the evening. Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain. OUTLOOK: SATURDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 - 4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph. SUNDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 - 4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at 9 - 15 mph. Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph. MONDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3000 - 4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind N to NE at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Friday, October 8, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the S through WSW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Oct 8 14:35:03 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Fri, 8 Oct 2010 14:35:03 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Friday, October 8, 2010 2:40 PM Pete Parsons 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 SATURDAY The jet stream is transitioning to a more autumn-like pattern. On Friday, a developing westerly flow aloft helped to kick east of the region the upper-level low pressure system that has been bringing showers to mainly eastern districts. It also pushed a very weak cold front across northern Oregon. A stronger system, with some entrained tropical moisture, will approach the coastline early Saturday. The bulk of the rainfall from this system is forecast to stay north and west of the region. The cold front is forecast to stall and push north, as a warm front, Saturday afternoon and evening. Southwesterly transport winds will continue to improve ventilation conditions, but warming aloft and cloud-cover will keep afternoon mixing heights somewhat suppressed. Smoke dispersal conditions will be fair. OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY) The chance of rain will increase, from west to east, across south-central Oregon on Sunday, as a strong cold front sweeps across the state. Increasing southwesterly transport winds will greatly improve ventilation conditions. Winds will veer to westerly, in the wake of the cold front, Sunday evening. There will not be much post-frontal shower activity, because the air aloft will stay fairly mild. The flow aloft is forecast to dry out and turn northwesterly on Monday. There will likely still be enough mixing and instability for a few mountain showers Monday morning. Transport winds will turn northerly, and begin to weaken. Even with some afternoon sunshine, mixing heights will be suppressed by subsidence aloft, associated with the building ridge of high pressure. Smoke dispersal conditions will be only fair. As the upper-level ridge continues to build over the region, strong surface-based inversions are likely by Tuesday morning. Patchy morning valley fog is possible. Mostly sunny skies are expected by the afternoon, but low mixing heights and light transport winds will likely make for marginal to poor ventilation conditions. 2. DISPERSION SATURDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3500 - 4500 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning. Transport wind decreases to SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon and evening. Surface wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning. Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the afternoon and evening. OUTLOOK: SUNDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon. MONDAY Mixing height 1400 - 2400 ft during the morning rising to 2700 - 3700 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind N to NE at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. TUESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2500 - 3500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Saturday, October 9, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SSW through NW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SSW through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Sat Oct 9 14:30:10 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Sat, 9 Oct 2010 14:30:10 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Saturday, October 9, 2010 2:40 PM Pete Parsons 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 SUNDAY A strong southwesterly jet stream will push an active cold front onshore in the morning. The chance of rain will increase, from west to east, during the afternoon. Increasing southwesterly transport winds and frontal mixing will make for good afternoon smoke dispersal conditions. Winds will veer to northwesterly, in the wake of the cold front, Sunday evening. Post-frontal shower activity will be limited, Sunday night, because the air aloft will not cool much. OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY) The flow aloft is forecast to dry out and turn northwesterly on Monday. Transport winds will weaken and turn northerly, with clearing skies providing enough heating for fair to good afternoon smoke dispersal conditions. As the upper-level ridge continues to build over the region, increasingly strong surface-based inversions are likely Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Areas of morning valley fog are possible; depending somewhat on the amount of rain that falls on Sunday. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are expected. Suppressed mixing heights, due to the upper-level ridge, and light transport winds will likely make for fair to poor smoke dispersal conditions. 2. DISPERSION SUNDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2700 - 3700 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning. Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon then shifts to NW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the evening. Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon then shifts to NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the evening. OUTLOOK: MONDAY Mixing height 1600 - 2600 ft during the morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph. Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph. TUESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 - 4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable. WEDNESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2300 - 3300 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Sunday, October 10, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SSW through N of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Watch for shifting transport winds. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Sun Oct 10 14:15:39 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2010 14:15:39 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject) Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Sunday, October 10, 2010 2:40 PM Jim Little 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 MONDAY The remains of Sunday's cold front are well to the east on Monday. Upper level flow is nearly due west to east but there is a hint of an upper level ridge building offshore. There may be some patchy fog in some valley locations otherwise expect fair weather. Transport winds will be generally north-northeasterly and mixing heights should allow for fair smoke dispersal conditions. EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY - THURSDAY) The ridge aloft continues to develop Tuesday. Initially it will be offshore but it will drift eastward to over the Pacific Northwest by afternoon. Warm air aloft and sinking air with the upper ridge will suppress mixing. By Wednesday the upper ridge axis will extend from central Nevada, through central Oregon and northward to Alberta. It will continue its eastward drift. Maximum mixing heights will continue to be suppressed and ventilation conditions will be only fair. On Thursday the upper ridge continues its push east. Flow aloft becomes southwesterly and temperatures aloft begin to cool. This will help maximum mixing heights recover to a more favorable level. Transport winds will be generally southerly or south-southwesterly. 2. DISPERSION MONDAY Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3300 - 4300 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening. Transport wind N to NE at 5 - 9 mph during the morning. Transport wind increases to N to NE at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon and evening. Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to N to NE at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon then decreases to NE to E at 4 - 8 mph during the evening. OUTLOOK: TUESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1900 ft by late morning rising to 2800 - 3800 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. WEDNESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2800 - 3800 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable. THURSDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Monday, October 11, 2010. ================================================================== Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion. Delay ignitions until 10:00am. Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the N through E of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the N through SSE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 3:30pm. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Oct 11 14:12:28 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2010 14:12:28 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject) Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Monday, October 11, 2010 2:40 PM Jim Little 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 TUESDAY A broad ridge in the upper atmosphere covers the region on Tuesday. This ridge extends from a high centered just off the northern California coast. Subsidence aloft will cap mixing heights at around 3000 feet and transport winds will be very light. The light winds mean burns should be planned for locations well away from SSRA's. EXTENDED OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY) The upper ridge drifts east and by Wednesday its axis will lie on a line from Nevada to Alberta. Continued subsidence will keep mixing heights low and smoke dispersal conditions will be marginal. By Thursday the upper ridge moves east and an upper trough in the Gulf of Alaska turns flow aloft to southwesterly. Mixing heights should improve most areas and smoke dispersal conditions will improve to fair. Friday will see dry weather, light southwesterly transport winds, and good smoke dispersal conditions. 2. DISPERSION TUESDAY Mixing height 1400 - 2400 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height lowers to 1000 - 1000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening. Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Transport wind increases to E to SE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon and evening. Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to E to SE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening. OUTLOOK: WEDNESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SE to S at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon. THURSDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. FRIDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1900 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, October 12, 2010. ================================================================== Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion. Delay ignitions until 10:00am. Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the ENE through SSE of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the ENE through S in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 3:30am. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Oct 12 14:40:38 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2010 14:40:38 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject) Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Tuesday, October 12, 2010 2:40 PM Jim Little 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 WEDNESDAY High pressure aloft continues over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday, but it is moving slowly eastward. The axis of the high pressure ridge extends from Nevada to Alberta by mid morning, and by early evening has moved to the northern Rockies. Expect light winds, generally from the south, and low suppressed mixing heights, but smoke dispersal conditions should be mostly fair. EXTENDED OUTLOOK (THURSDAY - SATURDAY) The upper level ridge will be well to the east by Thursday with southwest flow aloft setting up over the Pacific Northwest. Cooling aloft will allow for higher maximum mixing heights and improved ventilation conditions. By Friday models show minor ridging aloft. Expect fair weather and generally fair smoke dispersal conditions. Saturday will see southwesterly flow aloft, south-southwesterly transport winds and mostly good smoke dispersal conditions. 2. DISPERSION WEDNESDAY Mixing height 2300 - 3300 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3300 - 4300 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening. Transport wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph. OUTLOOK: THURSDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 14 - 28 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon. FRIDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning rising to 3800 - 4800 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable. SATURDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 - 2700 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Wednesday, October 13, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SSE through WSW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SSE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 3:30pm. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Oct 13 13:56:12 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2010 13:56:12 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject) Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Wednesday, October 13, 2010 2:40 PM Jim Little 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 THURSDAY Upper level flow over the Pacific Northwest will be southwesterly ahead of an upper level disturbance moving towards British Columbia and northern Washington on Thursday. A weak front reaches Oregon's north coast late in the afternoon. The effects of all this should stay well to the north and weather for south-central Oregon should remain sunny and dry with generally good smoke dispersal conditions. EXTENDED OUTLOOK (FRIDAY - SUNDAY) On Friday upper flow will be west-southwesterly with a weak ridge aloft. The remains of the front that pushes into northwest Oregon on Thursday will move through, but with limited the moisture likely all that will happen locally is some brief gusty winds. Otherwise expect dry weather and fair to good ventilation. Saturday will see southwesterly flow aloft with dry weather and mild temperatures. Transport level winds be mostly light and variable. Little change for Sunday with a weak upper disturbance moving through that could produce a few clouds, but expect dry weather, mostly northwesterly transport winds, and generally good ventilation. 2. DISPERSION THURSDAY Mixing height 1800 - 2800 ft during the morning. Mixing height rises above 5000 ft during the afternoon and evening. Transport wind SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning. Transport wind increases to SW to WSW at 18 - 30 mph during the afternoon and evening. Surface wind SSW to SW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning. Surface wind increases to SW to WSW at 12 - 22 mph during the afternoon then decreases to SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph during the evening. OUTLOOK: FRIDAY Mixing height 2300 - 3300 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. SATURDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 - 2400 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. SUNDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Thursday, October 14, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SSW through WSW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the SSW through W in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Oct 14 14:01:34 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2010 14:01:34 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Thursday, October 14, 2010 2:40 PM Pete Parsons 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 FRIDAY The upper-level flow will turn west-southwesterly, in the wake of a weak cold front that will be exiting the state. A surface ridge of high pressure will nose onshore with slackening transport winds. It will be cooler with partly cloudy skies. Afternoon mixing will be fair to good but transport winds will be light. OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY) The upper-level flow is forecast to turn a bit more southwesterly on Saturday, which will maintain dry conditions. Afternoon mixing should continue to be fair to good with transport winds becoming westerly in the afternoon. An upper-level trough is forecast to move into California on Sunday and will likely circulate some clouds into the region, along with the threat of a shower...mainly south. Afternoon mixing will remain fair to good, but transport winds will become light. The upper-level trough is forecast to eject into Nevada by Monday with a dry northeasterly flow aloft over south-central Oregon. Mixing may be suppressed slightly, but increasing northeasterly transport winds will make for fair smoke dispersal conditions. 2. DISPERSION FRIDAY Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 4200 - 5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening. Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain. Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain. OUTLOOK: SATURDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2400 - 3400 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. SUNDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. MONDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming N to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Friday, October 15, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 15 miles in all directions of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Oct 15 14:17:30 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2010 14:17:30 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Friday, October 15, 2010 2:40 PM Pete Parsons 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 SATURDAY The upper-level flow is forecast to turn southwesterly, as a splitting weak trough approaches the coastline. It will spread some clouds across the region but not likely any precipitation. Some sunshine and increasing onshore transport winds will make for good afternoon smoke dispersal conditions. OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY) An upper-level trough is forecast to split apart, as is moves onshore, with the main portion of it dropping southward, across California and Nevada, Sunday through Tuesday. An upper-level ridge is forecast to build over Oregon for continued dry conditions. Warming aloft will combine with October's lowering sun angle to strengthen overnight surface-based inversions. Afternoon smoke dispersal conditions will deteriorate each day, becoming marginal by Monday and poor by Tuesday. 2. DISPERSION SATURDAY Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening. Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Transport wind increases to SW to W at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon then shifts and decreases to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the evening. Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening. OUTLOOK: SUNDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2600 - 3600 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. MONDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. TUESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2700 - 3700 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Saturday, October 16, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SSW through NNW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Sat Oct 16 14:12:37 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2010 14:12:37 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Saturday, October 16, 2010 2:40 PM Nick Yonker 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 Weak upper level trough over the region today will dissipate and give way to an upper level ridge that will build into the region through early next week. Surface high pressure will build to the north with a thermal trough moving up from California. This will bring mostly northerly to offshore flow. Expect mostly sunny skies. Air mass will further stabilize and with generally light wind flow, make for poor smoke dispersion. OUTLOOK (MONDAY - WEDNESDAY): Upper level ridge continues to strengthen over the state Monday and Tuesday before slowly shifting eastward on Wednesday. Expect little change in the pattern with high pressure to the north and a surface thermal trough to the west maintaining a very light wind flow. Expect continued stable conditions through the period and poor smoke dispersion. 2. DISPERSION SUNDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening. Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain. Transport wind increases to NNE to NE at 9 - 15 mph during the evening. Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain through the day. Surface wind increases to N to ENE at 4 - 8 mph during the evening. OUTLOOK: MONDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning rising to 3000 - 4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind light and variable. TUESDAY Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft during the morning rising to 2500 - 3500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. WEDNESDAY Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft during the morning rising to 3300 - 4300 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Sunday, October 17, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the N through SSE of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the N through SSE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Sun Oct 17 14:31:52 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Sun, 17 Oct 2010 14:31:52 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject) Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Sunday, October 17, 2010 2:40 PM Jim Little 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 MONDAY Much of the early part of the week will dominated by a strong ridge aloft over most of the Pacific Northwest as a cut-off low meanders over southern California. Maximum mixing heights will be somewhat suppressed but smoke dispersal conditions should be generally fair to good. EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY - THURSDAY) The ridge-to-the-north/cut-of-low-to-the-south pattern is usually a slow-to-change pattern and little day-to-day variation is expected in weather through at least Wednesday. Mixing heights drop slightly on Tuesday then rebound a bit on Wednesday. Otherwise expect sunny and dry weather with occasionally marginal, but mostly fair smoke dispersal conditions. On Thursday the low over southern California moves east as does the upper ridge to the north. This will allow southwesterly flow aloft to develop over the eastern Pacific and the Pacific Northwest. A Pacific cold front will ride this flow into western Oregon late in the day, but any rainfall from this system will hold off until Friday and much of south central Oregon will escape with no rain at all. 2. DISPERSION MONDAY Mixing height 1100 - 2100 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening. Transport wind NNE to ENE at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind NNE to ENE at 5 - 9 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening. OUTLOOK: TUESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning rising to 3900 - 4900 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. WEDNESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 3900 - 4900 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable. THURSDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Monday, October 18, 2010. ================================================================== Delay ignitions until 10:00am. Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the NNE through E of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the NNE through ESE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 3:30pm. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Oct 18 14:39:23 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2010 14:39:23 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject) Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Monday, October 18, 2010 2:40 PM Jim Little 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 TUESDAY An upper level "blocking" pattern continues with high pressure aloft over the Pacific Northwest and an upper level low spinning over the northern Baja peninsula of Mexico. This is a slow-to-change pattern and the ridge is shunting Pacific weather systems to the north of the region. Subsidence (or sinking air motion) aloft is holding mixing heights down somewhat. Expect fair smoke dispersal conditions most areas. EXTENDED OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY) The upper level pattern begins a slow shift eastward on Wednesday. Transport winds most areas will shift to south or southwesterly. The upper level flow goes southerly on Thursday and the region will be out of the area of strong subsidence aloft for higher afternoon mixing heights. Transport winds will be mostly southwesterly. On Friday, flow aloft will be from the southwest. Models show a weakening Pacific front moving into northwest Oregon later Friday but most precipitation should remain north of the region through the early part of the weekend. 2. DISPERSION TUESDAY Mixing height 1400 - 2400 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 2700 - 3700 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening. Transport wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening. OUTLOOK: WEDNESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1900 - 2900 ft by late morning rising to 3600 - 4600 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable. THURSDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. FRIDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 - 2400 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, October 19, 2010. ================================================================== Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion. Delay ignitions until 10:00am. Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the ENE through ESE of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the ENE through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 3:30pm. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Oct 19 14:22:05 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2010 14:22:05 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject) Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Tuesday, October 19, 2010 2:40 PM Jim Little 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 WEDNESDAY Expect little change in weather for the region on Tuesday. An upper low continues in the vicinity of southern California and a ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest is shunting weather systems well to the north. The upper ridge will edge east during the day Wednesday. Maximum afternoon mixing heights will climb to around 3500 feet most areas with a generally southerly transport wind. Expect fair smoke dispersal conditions much of the region. EXTENDED OUTLOOK (THURSDAY - SATURDAY) The upper ridge will have moved east by Thursday and an upper short wave will be approaching from the southwest. This will increase cloudiness throughout the day. Transport winds most areas will be from the southwest. By Friday the region will be under southwesterly flow aloft. There will be very limited moisture for some areas of light rain, but most areas should remain dry during the day. Afternoon mixing heights should climb to 5000 feet. On Saturday an active warm front/cold front combination will approach from the west. Rain will be on the increase during the afternoon with rain continuing Saturday night and Sunday. 2. DISPERSION WEDNESDAY Mixing height 1000 - 1900 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 2900 - 3900 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening. Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Transport wind increases to S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon and evening. Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain. OUTLOOK: THURSDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2400 - 3400 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph. Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph. FRIDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 - 2400 ft by late morning rising to 4300 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. SATURDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Wednesday, October 20, 2010. ================================================================== Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion. Delay ignitions until 10:00am. Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the SSE through WSW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the SSE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 3:30pm. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Oct 20 07:47:58 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2010 07:47:58 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) correction Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Tuesday, October 19, 2010 2:30 PM Jim Little 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 *** Poor or Marginal Smoke Ventilation Conditions Continue *** WEDNESDAY A slow transition out of the sunny and dry weather pattern of the past few days begins on Wednesday - but slow is the operative word here. An upper low continues in the vicinity of southern California and a ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest is shunting weather systems well to the north. The upper ridge will edge east during the day but Wednesday will be another day of hazy sunshine, low mixing heights and light transport winds. Mixing heights will be around 2000 feet or less most areas except the southern Cascades. Low level flow should switch to onshore most areas but they will remain light and somewhat variable. EXTENDED OUTLOOK (THURSDAY - SATURDAY) The upper ridge will have moved east by Thursday and an upper short wave will be approaching from the southwest. This will increase cloudiness throughout the day and by late in the afternoon some rain from an associated weakening Pacific front will reach the south coast. This will spread north and east during the evening hours, but the front is weak does not look to be a big wind or rain producer. Maximum mixing heights should be considerably improved, however. By Friday the region will be under westerly flow aloft with good onshore flow at lower levels. There will be enough moisture for areas of light rain and afternoon mixing heights will continue to increase. On Saturday an active warm front/cold front combination will approach from the west. Rain will be on the increase during the afternoon and rain will be heavy at times Saturday night. 2. DISPERSION Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range): MORNING Mixing height 1000 - 1700 ft. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain. AFTERNOON Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft. Transport wind similar to morning. Surface wind similar to morning. EVENING Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft. Transport wind similar to afternoon. Surface wind similar to afternoon. Zone 605-611 (North Cascades): MORNING Mixing height 1000 - 1600 ft. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain. AFTERNOON Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft. Transport wind similar to morning. Surface wind similar to morning. EVENING Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft. Transport wind similar to afternoon. Surface wind similar to afternoon. Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range): MORNING Mixing height 1000 - 1800 ft. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain. AFTERNOON Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft. Transport wind similar to morning. Surface wind similar to morning. EVENING Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft. Transport wind similar to afternoon. Surface wind similar to afternoon. Zone 616-623 (South Cascades): MORNING Mixing height 1400 - 2400 ft. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain. AFTERNOON Mixing height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft. Transport wind similar to morning. Surface wind similar to morning. EVENING Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft. Transport wind similar to afternoon. Surface wind similar to afternoon. OUTLOOK: THURSDAY In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 to 2300 ft by late morning rising to 2800 to 3800 ft during the afternoon. In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3900 to 4900 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon. FRIDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable. SATURDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 2300 to 3300 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 16 mph. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Wednesday, October 20, 2010. ================================================================= Coast Range Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. Zone 602 and 603 No burning allowed. Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. Zone 618 Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Zone 619 Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. Zone 620 Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. Cascades Zone 605 and 606 No burning allowed. Zone 607, 608, 609, 617, and 623 Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate. Zone 610 and 611 Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. Zone 616 Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Zone 620 and 622 No burning allowed. Siskiyous Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available, leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible. Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. The forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml 5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX: * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRA. Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. Example: 500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA. * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of downwind SSRA. Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA. * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of downwind SSRA. Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA. * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster prior to ignition. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Oct 20 07:55:31 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2010 07:55:31 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) Correction 2 Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY Note: Corrected Wednesday Forecast Discussion ISSUED: Tuesday, October 19, 2010 2:40 PM Jim Little 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 WEDNESDAY A slow transition out of the sunny and dry weather pattern of the past few days begins on Wednesday - but slow is the operative word here. An upper low continues in the vicinity of southern California and a ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest is shunting weather systems well to the north. The upper ridge will edge east during the day Wednesday. Maximum afternoon mixing heights will climb to around 3500 feet most areas with southerly transport winds. Expect generally fair smoke dispersal conditions. EXTENDED OUTLOOK (THURSDAY - SATURDAY) The upper ridge will have moved east by Thursday and an upper short wave will be approaching from the southwest. This will increase cloudiness throughout the day. Transport winds most areas will be from the southwest. By Friday the region will be under southwesterly flow aloft. There will be very limited moisture for some areas of light rain, but most areas should remain dry during the day. Afternoon mixing heights should climb to 5000 feet. On Saturday an active warm front/cold front combination will approach from the west. Rain will be on the increase during the afternoon with rain continuing Saturday night and Sunday. 2. DISPERSION WEDNESDAY Mixing height 1000 - 1900 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 2900 - 3900 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening. Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Transport wind increases to S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon and evening. Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain. OUTLOOK: THURSDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2400 - 3400 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph. Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph. FRIDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 - 2400 ft by late morning rising to 4300 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. SATURDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Wednesday, October 20, 2010. ================================================================== Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion. Delay ignitions until 10:00am. Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the SSE through WSW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the SSE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 3:30pm. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Oct 20 14:26:43 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2010 14:26:43 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Wednesday, October 20, 2010 2:40 PM Pete Parsons 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 THURSDAY The strong upper-level ridge that has been over the region for the past few days will shift eastward to over the northern Rockies. The first in a series of weather systems is forecast to bring increasing clouds to the region late in the day. Increasing south to southwesterly transport winds and higher mixing heights will combine for fair to good afternoon smoke dispersal conditions. OUTLOOK (FRIDAY-SUNDAY) A dissipating cold front will bring clouds and a chance of very light rain to the region Friday. West-southwesterly flow aloft will promote further cooling with continued fair to good afternoon smoke dispersal conditions. A little stronger system is forecast to bring a better chance of light rain to the region on Saturday. Daytime smoke dispersion will remain fair to good. A much stronger and moisture-laden cold front is forecast to spread rain across the entire region Sunday, along with brisk southwesterly to westerly transport winds. 2. DISPERSION THURSDAY Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers to 2000 - 3000 ft during the evening. Transport wind SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning. Transport wind increases to SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon and evening. Surface wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph. OUTLOOK: FRIDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 - 2800 ft by late morning rising to 4400 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. SATURDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph. Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon. SUNDAY Mixing height 2800 - 3800 ft during the morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SW to WSW at 25 - 45 mph during the morning becoming WSW to W at 22 - 38 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Thursday, October 21, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the S through WSW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles to the S through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Oct 21 14:26:13 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 14:26:13 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Thursday, October 21, 2010 2:40 PM Pete Parsons 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 FRIDAY The first in a series of progressively stronger weather systems will likely bring increasing clouds to the region but only a chance of a few light showers. Cooling aloft and southwesterly transport winds will provide good smoke dispersal conditions. OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY) The next weather system will likely be strong enough to bring some light rain to the region Friday night with rain showers decreasing during the day on Saturday. Rainfall totals will range from less than one-tenth of an inch to around one-quarter of an inch across the higher terrain. Ventilation conditions will continue to be good with brisk southwesterly transport winds. A strong warm front will bring steady rain to the region Saturday night, followed by a moisture laden cold front Sunday morning. This system could bring from one-half to one inch of rain along with strong south to southwesterly winds. A strong westerly jet stream, aimed right at Oregon, will continue significant shower activity Sunday afternoon through Monday, with the snow level dropping from more than 6000 feet early Sunday to below 4000 feet on Monday. A few inches of snow accumulation are possible, above 4500 feet, by Monday night. 2. DISPERSION FRIDAY Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening. Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning. Transport wind increases to SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon and evening. Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning. Surface wind increases to SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon and evening. OUTLOOK: SATURDAY Mixing height 3200 - 4200 ft during the morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SW to WSW at 15 - 29 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 12 - 22 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph. SUNDAY Mixing height 3800 - 4800 ft during the morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind SW to WSW at 25 - 45 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 22 - 38 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon. MONDAY Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft during the morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 18 - 32 mph. Surface wind SW to W at 10 - 18 mph. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Friday, October 22, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the S through WSW of SSRAs. Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Oct 22 14:23:51 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2010 14:23:51 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Friday, October 22, 2010 2:40 PM Pete Parsons 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 SATURDAY The second in a series of progressively stronger weather systems is forecast to spread rain, from west to east, across the region during the pre-dawn hours. Most areas will see around one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch, with the greater amounts at higher elevations. The cold front will weaken and push east of the region by late morning, with just a chance of afternoon showers. Fresh southwesterly transport winds and high mixing heights should make for good smoke dispersal conditions. OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY) A warm front will spread steady rain back across the region Saturday night, followed by a strong cold front Sunday morning. Rainfall totals from this system could exceed an inch, especially over higher terrain. The cold front will also produce strong southwesterly winds Sunday, locally gusting over 45 mph. A strong westerly jet stream, aimed right at Oregon, will continue significant shower activity Sunday afternoon through Tuesday, with the snow level dropping from more than 6000 feet early Sunday to near 4500 feet Monday and Tuesday. A couple of inches of snow are possible, above 5000 feet, Monday and Tuesday. Rain and mountain snow showers are forecast to taper off late Tuesday. 2. DISPERSION SATURDAY Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day. Mixing height lowers to 3000 - 4000 ft during the evening. Transport wind SW to WSW at 12 - 22 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind increases to SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph during the evening. Surface wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph. OUTLOOK: SUNDAY Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day. Transport wind SSW to SW at 25 - 45 mph during the morning becoming WSW to W at 25 - 45 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind S to SW at 15 - 25 mph. MONDAY Mixing height 3800 - 4800 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to W at 18 - 32 mph. Surface wind SW to W at 10 - 18 mph. TUESDAY Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind W to WNW at 15 - 25 mph. Surface wind WSW to NW at 6 - 12 mph. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Saturday, October 23, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SSW through WSW of SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Sat Oct 23 14:25:05 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2010 14:25:05 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Saturday, October 23, 2010 2:40 PM Pete Parsons 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 SUNDAY Wet and windy weather is in store for all of Oregon on Sunday. A warm front will spread steady rain across the region tonight (Saturday night). The third, and strongest, in a series of cold fronts will come onshore early Sunday morning and sweep across south-central Oregon in the late-morning. Rainfall totals from this system could exceed an inch, especially over higher terrain. The cold front will also bring strong southerly winds, with gusts of 30-40 mph common and local gusts to near 45 mph. In the wake of the cold front, blustery winds will likely turn southwesterly. Showers will be frequent, especially over higher terrain. Snow levels will rapidly drop, with accumulating snow likely, above 4500 feet, Sunday night. South-southwesterly transport winds and high mixing heights will provide good smoke dispersal conditions. OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY) A strong westerly jet stream, aimed right at Oregon, will continue significant shower activity Monday and Tuesday, with additional snowfall likely above 4500 feet. Rain and mountain snow showers are forecast to taper off late Tuesday, as the flow aloft turns northwesterly and more stable. A weak and transitory upper-level ridge should bring one dry day, on Wednesday, with warming aloft lowering mixing heights. Smoke dispersal conditions should remain good on Monday and then deteriorate to fair on Tuesday and marginal on Wednesday. 2. DISPERSION SUNDAY Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day. Mixing height lowers to 3300 - 4300 ft during the evening. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 30 - 50 mph during the morning. Transport wind shifts to WSW to WNW at 29 - 49 mph during the afternoon then decreases to WSW to WNW at 20 - 36 mph during the evening. Surface wind SSW to SW at 15 - 29 mph during the morning. Surface wind shifts to WSW to WNW at 15 - 29 mph during the afternoon then decreases to WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph during the evening. OUTLOOK: MONDAY Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 18 - 30 mph. Surface wind SW to W at 10 - 16 mph. TUESDAY Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft during the morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind W to NW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph. WEDNESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2500 - 3500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Sunday, October 24, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SW through WNW of SSRAs. Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. No additional restrictions necessary. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Sun Oct 24 14:42:08 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2010 14:42:08 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject) Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Sunday, October 24, 2010 2:40 PM Jim Little 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 MONDAY A 180 mph jet stream remains aimed directly at Oregon on Monday. Sunday's wet and windy storm will be well to the east of the region, but showers and possible thunderstorms will linger. Cool air aloft will allow for high mixing heights and good smoke dispersal conditions most areas. Snow level will be about 4500 feet. EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY - THURSDAY) The upper level jet slackens and drops southward while weak high pressure aloft begins to build over the eastern Pacific on Wednesday. There will still be a few scattered showers. Mixing heights will remain high most areas. By Wednesday the upper level ridge moves over the Pacific Northwest and an upper low develops about 450 miles west of the Washington Coast. Low level flow goes south or south-southeasterly. Subsidence aloft (sinking air motion) suppresses maximum mixing heights but smoke dispersal conditions will remain fair to good most areas. On Thursday the center of the upper low moves to within about 250 miles of the northern Oregon Coast. Upper flow becomes southwesterly over the region. A Pacific weather system moves into Washington and Oregon during the day. Rain reaches the area by mid-day 2. DISPERSION MONDAY Mixing height 2600 - 3600 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3500 - 4500 ft then lowers to 2700 - 3700 ft during the evening. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 15 - 25 mph. Surface wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind decreases to WSW to WNW at 8 - 14 mph during the evening. OUTLOOK: TUESDAY Mixing height 4100 - 5000 ft during the morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to W at 18 - 32 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SW to W at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon. WEDNESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2600 - 3600 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable. THURSDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Monday, October 25, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the WSW through WNW of SSRAs. Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. No additional restrictions necessary. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Oct 25 14:04:04 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2010 14:04:04 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject) Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Monday, October 25, 2010 2:40 PM Jim Little 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 TUESDAY The main jet stream is to the south of the region on Monday, cutting across the coastline near San Francisco. Skies will be mostly cloudy with a chance of a scattered shower or two although most areas should remain dry. Blustery west-southwest winds will continue. Mixing heights will climb to 5000 feet or above during the afternoon for good smoke dispersal conditions. EXTENDED OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY) A developing upper level low offshore helps build high pressure aloft over the Pacific Northwest. Subsidence and warming aloft will limit maximum mixing heights to around 3000 feet. Weather should be dry Wednesday and smoke dispersal conditions should be generally fair. On Thursday the offshore low moves to within about 250 miles of the northern California coast. Upper level flow backs to southwesterly over the region and warm air aloft should keep maximum mixing heights to near 3000 feet or so but southerly transport winds should help ventilation. On Friday the upper low slides into California. Expect a chance of light rain, south-southeasterly transport winds and improving mixing heights. 2. DISPERSION TUESDAY Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft during the morning. Mixing height rises above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind decreases to WNW to NW at 8 - 14 mph during the evening. Surface wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening. OUTLOOK: WEDNESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind SE to S at 10 - 16 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 14 - 28 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SE to S at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon. THURSDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2500 - 3500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. FRIDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, October 26, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the WSW through NW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the WSW through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 3:30pm. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Oct 26 14:28:30 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2010 14:28:30 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject) Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Tuesday, October 26, 2010 2:40 PM Jim Little 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 WEDNESDAY A ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere covers the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday but an upper level low is also intensifying about 450 miles west of Brookings. Skies will be mostly sunny and transport winds will be generally southwesterly through southeasterly. Maximum mixing heights will be in the 3000 to 4000 foot range for fair smoke dispersal conditions EXTENDED OUTLOOK (THURSDAY - SATURDAY) The upper level low moves to about 400 miles west of San Francisco on Thursday. Upper flow over Oregon backs to southwesterly. Warm air aloft keeps mixing heights suppressed for just fair smoke dispersal conditions. On Friday the upper level low drops southward to off the southern California coast. Maximum mixing heights should reach 4000 to 4500 feet for improving smoke dispersal conditions. Look for dry weather under mostly sunny skies. Smoke dispersal conditions remain marginal. On Saturday the upper low opens up and moves northeast as a weak upper level trough. Smoke dispersal conditions will further improve and the southerly transport winds of Friday will continue. 2. DISPERSION WEDNESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rising to 2700 - 3700 ft and remaining the same through the evening. Transport wind SSE to S at 14 - 28 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind increases to SSE to SSW at 22 - 38 mph during the evening. Surface wind SE to S at 12 - 22 mph. OUTLOOK: THURSDAY Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft during the morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SSW at 20 - 36 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 14 - 28 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 18 mph. FRIDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3700 - 4700 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable. SATURDAY Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft during the morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Wednesday, October 27, 2010. ================================================================== Delay ignitions until 10:00am. Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SSE through SSW of SSRAs. Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Oct 27 14:43:16 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2010 14:43:16 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Wednesday, October 27, 2010 2:40 PM Pete Parsons 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 THURSDAY The transitory upper-level ridge that was over the region on Wednesday is forecast to rapidly shift eastward to over the northern Rockies. An approaching upper-level trough is digging southward offshore and is forecast to be centered about 300 miles west of the northern California coast by Thursday afternoon. A moist south-southwesterly flow aloft will spread lots of clouds and light rain at times across the region during the day. Rainfall totals will likely range from around one-tenth to one-third of an inch. The snow level will rise to near 6500 feet. Transport winds will be mostly southerly with fair to good smoke dispersal conditions. OUTLOOK (FRIDAY-SUNDAY) The upper-level trough will continue digging southward Friday, with the center of circulation forecast to be just off the central and southern California coastline by Friday evening. Southerly flow aloft will keep skies mostly cloudy but with a decreasing chance of showers. Fair to good smoke dispersal conditions will continue with southerly transport winds. The snow level will remain near 6500 feet. An upstream trough will act as a kicker system and eject the California eastward on Saturday. The flow aloft is forecast to be southwesterly with transport winds also turning more southwesterly. Smoke dispersal conditions will remain fair to good with only a slight chance of showers. A weak cold front is forecast to bring an increased chance of showers to the region Sunday, but most of the precipitation from this system will likely stay to the north. Snow levels should remain in the 6000 to 6500 foot range with south to southwesterly transport winds and continued fair to good smoke dispersal conditions. 2. DISPERSION THURSDAY Transport wind SSE to SSW at 22 - 38 mph during the morning. Transport wind decreases to SSE to SSW at 15 - 29 mph during the afternoon and decreases to SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph during the evening. Surface wind SE to S at 10 - 20 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind decreases to SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the evening. OUTLOOK: FRIDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2700 - 3700 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at 12 - 24 mph. Surface wind SE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph. SATURDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph. Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph. SUNDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Thursday, October 28, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SSE through SSW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SSE through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 3:30 p.m. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Oct 27 17:13:55 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2010 17:13:55 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ...CORRECTED WORDING ON DISPERSION FORECAST FOR THURSDAY... ISSUED: Wednesday, October 27, 2010 5:15 PM Pete Parsons 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 THURSDAY The transitory upper-level ridge that was over the region on Wednesday is forecast to rapidly shift eastward to over the northern Rockies. An approaching upper-level trough is digging southward offshore and is forecast to be centered about 300 miles west of the northern California coast by Thursday afternoon. A moist south-southwesterly flow aloft will spread lots of clouds and light rain at times across the region during the day. Rainfall totals will likely range from around one-tenth to one-third of an inch. The snow level will rise to near 6500 feet. Transport winds will be mostly southerly with fair to good smoke dispersal conditions. OUTLOOK (FRIDAY-SUNDAY) The upper-level trough will continue digging southward Friday, with the center of circulation forecast to be just off the central and southern California coastline by Friday evening. Southerly flow aloft will keep skies mostly cloudy but with a decreasing chance of showers. Fair to good smoke dispersal conditions will continue with southerly transport winds. The snow level will remain near 6500 feet. An upstream trough will act as a kicker system and eject the California eastward on Saturday. The flow aloft is forecast to be southwesterly with transport winds also turning more southwesterly. Smoke dispersal conditions will remain fair to good with only a slight chance of showers. A weak cold front is forecast to bring an increased chance of showers to the region Sunday, but most of the precipitation from this system will likely stay to the north. Snow levels should remain in the 6000 to 6500 foot range with south to southwesterly transport winds and continued fair to good smoke dispersal conditions. 2. DISPERSION THURSDAY Mixing height 2300 - 3300 feet early rising to 2700 - 3700 feet in the afternoon lowering to 1300 - 2300 feet in the evening. Transport wind SSE to SSW at 22 - 38 mph during the morning. Transport wind decreases to SSE to SSW at 15 - 29 mph during the afternoon and decreases to SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph during the evening. Surface wind SE to S at 10 - 20 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind decreases to SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the evening. OUTLOOK: FRIDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2700 - 3700 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at 12 - 24 mph. Surface wind SE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph. SATURDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph. Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph. SUNDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Thursday, October 28, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SSE through SSW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SSE through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 3:30 p.m. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Oct 28 14:35:53 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2010 14:35:53 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Thursday, October 28, 2010 2:40 PM Pete Parsons 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 FRIDAY An upper-level trough will continue digging southward offshore, with the center of circulation forecast to be about 250 miles off the central California coastline by evening. South to southwesterly flow aloft will keep skies mostly cloudy but with a decreasing chance of showers. The snow level will remain near 6500 feet. Southerly transport winds will weaken with fair smoke dispersal conditions. OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY) The upper-level trough will weaken and gets kicked inland Saturday with the main circulation center moving across northern California and Nevada. A moist southwesterly flow aloft will keep skies mostly cloudy over all of Oregon with a few areas of light rain. Increasing southwesterly transport winds will maintain at least fair smoke dispersal conditions. A weak cold front is forecast to bring an increased chance of showers to the region Sunday, but most of the precipitation from this system will likely stay to the north. South to southwesterly transport winds will provide fair to good smoke dispersal conditions. A building ridge of high pressure will rapidly lower mixing heights Sunday evening. More stagnant conditions are expected Monday with areas of morning valley fog. A warm front will possibly spread some middle and high clouds over the region. Snow levels will lift above 8000 feet. Light southerly transport winds and suppressed mixing heights will likely provide only marginal afternoon smoke dispersal conditions. 2. DISPERSION FRIDAY Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening. Transport wind S to SSW at 15 - 25 mph during the morning. Transport decreases to S to SW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon then shifts to ESE to S and decreases to 6 - 10 mph during the evening. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening. OUTLOOK: SATURDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3300 - 4300 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph. SUNDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2800 - 3800 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at 15 - 29 mph. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph. MONDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2300 - 3300 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Friday, October 29, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SE through SW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Watch for shifting transport winds. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Oct 29 14:39:30 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2010 14:39:30 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Friday, October 29, 2010 2:40 PM Pete Parsons 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 SATURDAY The upper-level trough that was centered just off the California coast on Friday will weaken and slide inland across California and Nevada. A moist southwesterly flow aloft will keep skies mostly cloudy over the region with a few areas of light rain possible. Increasing southwesterly transport winds will maintain at least fair smoke dispersal conditions. OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY) A cold front is forecast to bring a good chance of showers to the region Saturday night and Sunday. Rainfall totals should generally be around one-tenth of an inch or less. Southwesterly transport winds will provide fair to good smoke dispersal conditions. A building ridge of high pressure will clear skies and rapidly lower mixing heights Sunday evening. More stagnant conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday with areas of morning low clouds and valley fog. Snow levels will lift above 8000 feet. Light south to southwesterly transport winds and suppressed mixing heights will likely provide only marginal afternoon smoke dispersal conditions on Monday. Valley fog should become more widespread Tuesday, with possible persistent surface-based inversions. Light southeasterly transport winds and low mixing heights will generally make for poor smoke dispersal conditions. Some ridges could get above the low-level temperature inversions in the afternoon. 2. DISPERSION SATURDAY Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2400 - 3400 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3300 - 4300 ft then lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening. Transport wind SSW to SW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning. Transport wind increases to SSW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon and evening. Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning. Surface wind increases to SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon and evening. OUTLOOK: SUNDAY Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft during the morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind SW to WSW at 20 - 36 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon. MONDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SW at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind light and variable. TUESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 - 2000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Saturday, October 30, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SSW through WSW of SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Sat Oct 30 14:33:38 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2010 14:33:38 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Saturday, October 30, 2010 2:40 PM Pete Parsons 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 SUNDAY A cold front is forecast to bring rain to the region from Saturday night through Sunday morning, with decreasing showers during the day. Rainfall totals should be around one-tenth of an inch or less. Southwesterly transport winds will provide fair to ghould smoke dispersal conditions. Evening clearing should rapidly lower mixing heights. OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY) An intense storm system is forecast to develop, in the western Gulf of Alaska, by Monday. An associated warm front may keep some clouds across the region but dry conditions should prevail. Snow levels will lift to above 8000 feet. Mixing heights will drop some, from Sunday, but there should still be enough southwesterly transport wind for fair smoke dispersal conditions. A strong upper-level ridge is forecast to build over Oregon Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry weather will continue with stagnant conditions developing. Valley fog should become more widespread with possible persistent surface-based inversions. Transport winds will slacken and turn offshore. Low mixing heights will make for marginal to poor smoke dispersal conditions. Smoke from higher ridges could possibly raise above surface-based inversions into light southerly transport winds. 2. DISPERSION SUNDAY Transport wind SW to WSW at 18 - 32 mph during the morning. Transport wind decreases to SW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon and decreases to SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph during the evening. Surface wind SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph. OUTLOOK: MONDAY Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft during the morning rising to 3000 - 4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 16 mph. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. TUESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1700 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming ENE to ESE at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. WEDNESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 1900 - 2900 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph. Surface wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Sunday, October 31, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SSW through WSW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles to the SSE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Sun Oct 31 14:16:46 2010 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2010 14:16:46 -0700 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject) Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Sunday, October 31, 2010 2:40 PM Jim Little 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 MONDAY On Monday a ridge in the upper atmosphere will extend from southern California to the northern Rockies and an upper level low will be centered in the Gulf of Alaska. Winds around these two features will leave the Pacific Northwest in a southwesterly flow aloft. A Pacific cold front nearly parallel to the flow will slowly move into the Pacific Northwest. Heaviest rain will be in western Washington but rain reaching south-central Oregon will be spotty and light. Expect brisk south-southwest transport winds ahead of the front and mixing heights climbing into the 3000 to 3500 foot range most areas. EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY - THURSDAY) *** Marginal to Poor Ventilation Ventilation Conditions after Monday *** The low in the Gulf deepens and the ridge over the western US expands for dry weather through the middle part of the week. Transport winds will become light and by Tuesday with a tendency to east-northeast. Wednesday and Thursday transports will still be light but with a tendency toward southeast or south-southeast. Maximum mixing heights will generally be less than 2500 feet with very stable conditions overnight keeping any residual smoke close to the ground. 2. DISPERSION MONDAY Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 2800 - 3800 ft then lowers to 1000 - 1600 ft during the evening. Transport wind SW to WSW at 14 - 28 mph. Surface wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind decreases to SW to W at 5 - 9 mph during the evening. OUTLOOK: TUESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 - 2400 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming ENE to E at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming ENE to E at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon. WEDNESDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. THURSDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1800 - 2800 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Monday, November 1, 2010. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SSW through W of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SSE through W in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 3:30pm. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: