SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Thursday, October 28, 2010       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625



FRIDAY



An upper-level trough will continue digging southward offshore, with the center of circulation forecast to be about 250 miles off the central California coastline by evening.  South to southwesterly flow aloft will keep skies mostly cloudy but with a decreasing chance of showers.  The snow level will remain near 6500 feet.  Southerly transport winds will weaken with fair smoke dispersal conditions.


OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)


The upper-level trough will weaken and gets kicked inland Saturday with the main circulation center moving across northern California and Nevada.  A moist southwesterly flow aloft will keep skies mostly cloudy over all of Oregon with a few areas of light rain.  Increasing southwesterly transport winds will maintain at least fair smoke dispersal conditions.



A weak cold front is forecast to bring an increased chance of showers to the region Sunday, but most of the precipitation from this system will likely stay to the north.  South to southwesterly transport winds will provide fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.  A building ridge of high pressure will rapidly lower mixing heights Sunday evening.



More stagnant conditions are expected Monday with areas of morning valley fog.  A warm front will possibly spread some middle and high clouds over the region.  Snow levels will lift above 8000 feet.  Light southerly transport winds and suppressed mixing heights will likely provide only marginal afternoon smoke dispersal conditions.



2.  DISPERSION



FRIDAY

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind S to SSW at 15 - 25 mph during the morning.  Transport decreases to S to SW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon then shifts to ESE to S and decreases to 6 - 10 mph during the evening.



Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.



OUTLOOK:



SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3300 - 4300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2800 - 3800 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 15 - 29 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.



MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2300 - 3300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Friday, October 29, 2010.

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Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SE through SW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m.



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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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