SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Saturday, October 30, 2010       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625



SUNDAY



A cold front is forecast to bring rain to the region from Saturday night through Sunday morning, with decreasing showers during the day.  Rainfall totals should be around one-tenth of an inch or less.  Southwesterly transport winds will provide fair to ghould smoke dispersal conditions.  Evening clearing should rapidly lower mixing heights.


OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)


An intense storm system is forecast to develop, in the western Gulf of Alaska, by Monday.  An associated warm front may keep some clouds across the region but dry conditions should prevail.  Snow levels will lift to above 8000 feet.  Mixing heights will drop some, from Sunday, but there should still be enough southwesterly transport wind for fair smoke dispersal conditions.



A strong upper-level ridge is forecast to build over Oregon Tuesday and Wednesday.  Dry weather will continue with stagnant conditions developing.  Valley fog should become more widespread with possible persistent surface-based inversions.  Transport winds will slacken and turn offshore.  Low mixing heights will make for marginal to poor smoke dispersal conditions.  Smoke from higher ridges could possibly raise above surface-based inversions into light southerly transport winds.



2.  DISPERSION



SUNDAY



Transport wind SW to WSW at 18 - 32 mph during the morning.  Transport wind decreases to SW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon and decreases to SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph during the evening.



Surface wind SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph.





OUTLOOK:



MONDAY

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft during the morning rising to 3000 - 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 16 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.



TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1700 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming ENE to ESE at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 1900 - 2900 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Sunday, October 31, 2010.

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Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SSW through WSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles to the SSE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m.



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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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