From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Feb 9 15:59:18 2011 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Wed, 9 Feb 2011 15:59:18 -0800 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Wednesday, February 9, 2011 2:40 PM Pete Parsons 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 THURSDAY Dry weather will continue with mostly sunny skies. The axis of a broad upper-level ridge is forecast to move close to the coastline. Subsidence will further suppress maximum mixing heights with generally light transport winds and poor smoke dispersal conditions. OUTLOOK (FRIDAY-SUNDAY) On Friday the upper ridge axis is forecast to move east of the Cascades with the flow aloft becoming more westerly. Skies should remain mostly sunny with some increase in high clouds. Transport winds are forecast to increase and turn south-southwesterly during the afternoon. Maximum mixing heights will rise slightly with smoke dispersal conditions becoming poor to marginal. On Saturday a Pacific cold front is forecast to spread rain and mountain snow across western Washington, and northwestern Oregon, with increasing clouds across south-central Oregon. A chance of light rain will spread into the region Saturday night. Smoke dispersal conditions will become marginal to fair, with cooling aloft leading to slightly higher afternoon mixing heights. South to southwesterly transport winds will continue to increase. By Sunday, the flattened upper-level ridge axis is forecast to be near the Oregon/Idaho border with westerly flow aloft over Oregon. The first in what appears will be a series of Pacific storms is forecast to weaken over northern Oregon, with only a chance of light rain extending into south-central Oregon. The snow level is forecast to remain above 6000 feet. Smoke dispersal conditions should remain marginal to fair with southwesterly transport winds. 2. DISPERSION THURSDAY Mixing height below 500 feet early rising to 800 - 1200 feet by late morning rising to 1400 - 2000 feet during the afternoon. Mixing height lowering below 500 feet in the evening. Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain. Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain. OUTLOOK: FRIDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1700 - 2700 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. SATURDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2000 - 3000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph. SUNDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Thursday, February 10, 2011. ================================================================== Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion. Delay ignitions until 11 a.m. Avoid ignitions within 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles in all directions of SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Feb 10 14:43:41 2011 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2011 14:43:41 -0800 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Thursday, February 10, 2011 2:40 PM Pete Parsons 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 FRIDAY The axis of a broad upper-level ridge is forecast to shift east of the Cascades with the flow aloft becoming more westerly. Skies should remain mostly sunny with some increase in high clouds possible by late in the day. Transport winds are forecast to increase and turn south-southwesterly during the afternoon. Maximum mixing heights will rise slightly, compared to Thursday, with smoke dispersal conditions improving to marginal. OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY) The upper-level ridge will flatten on Saturday, as a Pacific cold front spreads rain and mountain snow across western Washington, with increasing clouds across south-central Oregon. A chance of light rain will spread into the region Saturday night. Smoke dispersal conditions will become fair to good, with increasing southwesterly transport winds. By Sunday, the flattened upper-level ridge axis is forecast to be near the Oregon/Idaho border with westerly flow aloft over Oregon. A Pacific frontal system will likely stall over northern Oregon, with only a chance of rain across south-central zones. The flow aloft is forecast to turn southwesterly Sunday afternoon, forcing the Pacific frontal system back to the north. The snow level should remain above 6000 feet. Expect marginal to fair smoke dispersal conditions with southwesterly transport winds weakening and becoming more southerly in the afternoon. A strong upper-level trough will approach the coastline Monday with increasing southwesterly flow aloft. Computer models are showing a fairly impressive surface low-pressure system moving into Vancouver Island, British Columbia late in the day. The associated cold front should bring increasing southerly surface winds to the region with a chance of rain, spreading from west to east, in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal conditions should be good, with brisk south to southwesterly transport winds. The snow level will remain above 5000 feet. In the wake of the strong cold front, snow levels are expected to drop to the basin floors, on Wednesday, with sticking snow likely. 2. DISPERSION FRIDAY Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1000 - 1900 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 1900 - 2900 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening. Transport wind SSE to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning. Transport wind increases to S to SW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon and evening. Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to SSE to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon and evening. OUTLOOK: SATURDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at 14 - 24 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 20 - 36 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSE to SW at 6 - 12 mph. SUNDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph. Surface wind SSE to SW at 6 - 10 mph. MONDAY Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SSW at 22 - 38 mph during the morning becoming S to SSW at 30 - 50 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming S to SSW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Friday, February 11, 2011. ================================================================== Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion. Delay ignitions until 11 a.m. Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the SSE through SW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the SSE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Feb 11 14:49:22 2011 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2011 14:49:22 -0800 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Friday, February 11, 2011 2:40 PM Pete Parsons 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 SATURDAY The broad upper-level ridge that has been over the region for several days will flatten with increasing westerly flow aloft. Skies will turn mostly cloudy, with a Pacific cold front spreading rain across western Oregon during the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the cold front, increasing low-level southwesterly winds will improve mixing with fair to good smoke dispersal conditions. OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY) The cold front will likely stall over central and southern Oregon Sunday morning, before migrating back northward, as a warm front, Sunday afternoon. That will bring at least a slight chance of rain with continued mostly cloudy skies. The snow level should remain above 6000 feet. Smoke dispersal conditions should be fair with weakening low-level turning more southerly. With the upper-level flow backing from westerly to southwesterly, most of the precipitation should push into Washington by Monday morning. Expect some partial clearing early with increasing mainly southerly transport winds. Smoke dispersal conditions should be fair to good. A strong upper-level trough will approach the coastline Monday afternoon with increasing southwesterly flow aloft. The associated cold front should bring brisk south winds, with a good chance of rain by late in the day. Snow dispersion will be fair to good. Snow levels will stay in the 5-6000 foot range. The strong cold front is forecast to move across the Cascades and into south-central Oregon Tuesday morning, bringing a significant and long-lasting change to the weather over the region. Expect a period of steady rain that will change to snow, in the wake of the cold front, Tuesday afternoon. Smoke dispersal conditions should be good with southwesterly transport winds. Look for periods of snow to continue Tuesday night and Wednesday with accumulations likely. 2. DISPERSION SATURDAY Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3300 - 4300 ft then lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening. Transport wind SSW to SW at 18 - 32 mph during the morning. Transport wind increases to SSW to WSW at 26 - 46 mph during the afternoon and evening. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph. OUTLOOK: SUNDAY Mixing height 2200 - 3200 ft during the morning rising to 3000 - 4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at 16 - 30 mph. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph. MONDAY Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft during the morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at 15 - 29 mph. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph. TUESDAY Mixing height 4500 - 5000 ft during the morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at 22 - 38 mph. Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 18 mph. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, February 12 and 13, 2011. ================================================================== For Saturday: Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SSW through SW of SSRAs. Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. No additional restrictions necessary. For Sunday: Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the S through SW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the S through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Feb 14 08:08:36 2011 From: smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (ODF Smoke Management Instructions) Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2011 08:08:36 -0800 Subject: SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject) Message-ID: SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY ISSUED: Monday, February 14, 2011 7:50 AM Jim Little 1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625 A low pressure system off the northern California coast is headed northeastward toward Vancouver Island this morning. The low is embedded in a broad cold trough is located over the northern Pacific Ocean. This is giving a generally southwesterly flow aloft over the region. Mixing heights should be fairly high today and smoke dispersal conditions generally good. Strong winds may inhibit plume development however. With the renewed rainfall and anticipated lowering snow levels after today we will suspend writing daily forecasts beginning this afternoon. Forecasts will resume when burning conditions improve and activity increases. In the meantime individual burns may be handled by calling the Smoke Management forecast desk in Salem at 503-945-7401. 2. DISPERSION MONDAY Transport wind SSW to SW at 35 - 55 mph. Surface wind S to SW at 20 - 36 mph. 3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624 This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Monday, February 14, 2011. ================================================================== Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SSW through SW of SSRAs. Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. No additional restrictions necessary. ============================================================== 4. SPECIAL NOTE: The smoke management forecaster is available at (503) 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. This forecast is available on the Internet at: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: