SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Sunday, May 1, 2011       2:40 PM      Jim Little



1.    DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625
   MONDAY

A fairly active cold front reaches the coastline early Monday morning slowly spreading rain eastward across Oregon.  Models differ on timing of onset of precipitation but generally agree that there will be light rain over the entire area by late afternoon.  Mixing heights should be at 5000 feet or better with south-southwesterly transport winds for good smoke dispersal conditions.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY - THURSDAY)

The upper trough associated with Monday's front moves east Tuesday and higher pressure builds offshore.  Look for dry weather and generally northwesterly transport winds. With afternoon mixing heights topping out above 5000 feet smoke dispersal conditions should be good.

The upper ridge axis moves directly over western Oregon Wednesday morning.  This will cause some stabilization of the atmosphere but mixing heights should still max out around 4000 feet for good smoke dispersal conditions. Transport winds will be generally northwesterly.

By Thursday a weak upper trough moves over the region as the upper ridge moves east.  Cooler air aloft ensures high maximum mixing heights for good smoke dispersal conditions.  Transport winds will be generally west-southwest to west-northwest.  2.  DISPERSION



MONDAY

Mixing height 4100 - 5000 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 4000 - 5000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind S to SW at 21 - 37 mph during the morning.  Transport decreases to S to SW at 15 - 29 mph during the afternoon then shifts to W to NW and decreases to 12 - 24 mph during the evening.



Surface wind SSW to SW at 14 - 28 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to W to NW and decreases to 12 - 22 mph during the afternoon then decreases to W to NW at 9 - 15 mph during the evening.



OUTLOOK:



TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3600 - 4600 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3600 - 4600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3100 - 4100 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Monday, May 2, 2011.

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Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the S through NW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas.  Watch for shifting transport winds.



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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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