SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Wednesday, May 11, 2011       2:40 PM      Jim Little



1.    DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625


    THURSDAY
An upper level low pressure area will spin off the coast Thursday and Friday then open up and move over Oregon and Washington over the weekend.  The remains of a weak cold front will move through during the day for some light rain.  It will be quite cool with temperatures 4 to 6 degrees below average.  Maximum mixing heights should be quite high for generally good smoke dispersal conditions but expect light shifting transport winds as the front works its way east.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (FRIDAY - SUNDAY)
On Friday the upper low remains far enough offshore such that there is very little moisture available for precipitation.  Thus expect dry weather and with southerly winds aloft temperatures climb to 4 to 6 degrees above average.  Maximum afternoon mixing heights will remain high and smoke dispersal conditions should be generally fair to good with a southerly transport flow.
Saturday showers develop as the upper low opens up and rotates into the area as an upper level trough.  Smoke dispersal conditions remain good with a southerly transport.
Sunday the upper trough is directly over the area.  Expect numerous showers and quite cool weather with temperatures tumbling to anywhere from 10 to 15 degrees below average for mid May.  Mixing heights should climb to around 4500 feet and transport winds stay southerly.



2.  DISPERSION



THURSDAY

Mixing height 2800 - 3800 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind SW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to SW to WSW at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon then decreases to WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the evening.



Surface wind SW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning.  Surface wind increases to SW to W at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon then decreases to WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the evening.



OUTLOOK:



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.



SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2600 - 3600 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Thursday, May 12, 2011.

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Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SW through WNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 4:00pm.



==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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