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<div>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS</div>
<div>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER</div>
<div>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY</div>
<div> </div>
<div>NOTE: Fall season smoke management forecasts and instructions will end for 2009 with this bulletin. A forecaster will remain available weekdays for consultation throughout the winter. Regular, daily forecasts will begin again in the spring when burning
activity increases. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>ISSUED: Wednesday, December 23, 2009 2:30 PM Jim Little</div>
<div> </div>
<div>1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623</div>
<div> </div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; "> ** Dry and Stable Period Tomorrow and Friday**</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; "> ** Unfavorable Smoke Dispersal Conditions **</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; "> ** Air Stagnation Advisory issued for Rogue Valley **</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; "> </div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Pacific Northwest Weather will be dominated by an upper ridge through the end of the week. On Thursday the axis of that ridge will be right along the Oregon/Washington Coast. Subsiding air with the ridge will make for very
stable atmospheric conditions. </div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">At the surface higher pressure over eastern Washington and northern Idaho will give easterly winds in the northwestern portion of Oregon but winds in the Rogue Valley will be light. The east winds could offer some burn opportunities
over the north coast range, otherwise smoke dispersal conditions will remain poor. </div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; "> </div>
<div> OUTLOOK (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)</div>
<div> </div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">The upper ridge continues to move eastward Friday but little change is expected with respect to smoke dispersal conditions. Computer models are inconsistent on how the pattern will break down but there is an increasing chance
of precipitation later Saturday and Sunday as weak disturbances move in from the west. This should help to improve smoke dispersal conditions. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>2. DISPERSION</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div>Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind NE to E at 9 - 15 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div>Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind similar to morning.</div>
<div>Surface wind similar to morning.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div>Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind similar to afternoon.</div>
<div>Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div>Mixing height below 1000 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind light and variable.</div>
<div>Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div>Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind increases to E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind similar to morning.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div>Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind increases to ESE to SE at 10 - 16 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind increases to E to SE at 6 - 12 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div>Mixing height below 1000 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind ESE to SSE at 6 - 10 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div>Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind becomes light and variable.</div>
<div>Surface wind similar to morning.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div>Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind similar to afternoon.</div>
<div>Surface wind similar to afternoon.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div>Mixing height below 1000 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind E to SE at 5 - 9 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div>Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind becomes light and variable.</div>
<div>Surface wind similar to morning.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div>Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind increases to E to SE at 5 - 9 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind increases to E to SE at 5 - 9 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>OUTLOOK:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>FRIDAY</div>
<div>Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1700 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind E to SE at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>SATURDAY</div>
<div>Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1600 to 2600 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind E to SE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>SUNDAY</div>
<div>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA</div>
<div>These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, December 24, 2009.</div>
<div>=================================================================</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Coast Range</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 601, 602, 603, 612, 618, and 619</div>
<div>Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W</div>
<div>Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 616 east of R9W</div>
<div>Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 620</div>
<div>Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Cascades</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 605, 606, 620, and 622</div>
<div>No burning allowed.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 607, 608, 616, 617, and 623</div>
<div>Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 609, 610, and 611</div>
<div>Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Siskiyous</div>
<div>Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>==============================================================</div>
<div>4. SPECIAL NOTE:</div>
<div> </div>
<div> Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to</div>
<div> discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to </div>
<div> discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available, </div>
<div> leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.</div>
<div> Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. </div>
<div> </div>
<div> The forecast is available on the Internet at: </div>
<div> <a href="http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management"><font color="#0000FF"><u>http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management</u></font></a> </div>
<div> </div>
<div> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: </div>
<div> <a href="http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml"><font color="#0000FF"><u>http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml</u></font></a> </div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster </div>
<div> prior to ignition.</div>
<div> </div>
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