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<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED: Thursday,
November 4, 2010 2:40 PM Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>1. DISCUSSION
AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>FRIDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpFirst style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>The massive upper-level ridge of high
pressure that has been bringing unseasonably warm temperatures and stagnant
ventilation conditions will weaken and shift slightly eastward. The ridge axis
is forecast to stretch from Utah through eastern Montana with a slowly
strengthening southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>The first in a series of progressively
stronger weather systems will fall apart along the coastline, with just a few
clouds will drifting over the region. Warm air aloft will continue to suppress
mixing heights. However, increasing southerly surface and transport winds may
locally mix warmer air aloft to the surface, resulting in near-record warm
surface temperatures and improved smoke dispersal conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>The second in a series of weather systems
will approach the coastline on Saturday, but it appears as if any significant
rainfall will stay offshore until evening. Clouds will be on the increase over
south-central Oregon with a slight chance of light showers rotating over the
region from California. South to southwesterly winds will keep surface
temperatures well above normal, and cooling aloft will raise afternoon mixing
heights, making for good smoke dispersal conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>A cold front will likely spread rain across
western Oregon by Saturday night and into south-central Oregon Sunday morning.
Rain will turn to showers later Sunday afternoon. Rainfall amounts should range
from one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch. Surface temperatures will cool to
near normal. Cooler air aloft will drop the snow level to around 5000 feet, by
evening, with continued good afternoon smoke dispersal conditions. Showers
will taper off Sunday night. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>A flat and transitory upper-level ridge will
being some drying on Monday and may suppress afternoon mixing heights
slightly. Surface temperatures will cool to slightly below normal with a
continued threat of showers, mainly east in the morning. Transport winds will
remain onshore with fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpLast style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>FRIDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
below 800 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing
height rises to 3000 - 4000 ft then lowers to 1000 - 2000 ft during the
evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
SSW to SW at 12 - 22 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind
decreases to SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind SSE
to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SATURDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 -
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 20 mph during the
morning becoming SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind
SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SUNDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft during the morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at 18 - 32 mph during the morning becoming
WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind S to SW at 8 - 12
mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MONDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 -
4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind W to NW at 8 - 12 mph. Surface
wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> RANGE PORTION
OF ZONE 624<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>This instruction
is valid for burning conducted on Friday, November 5, 2010.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>==================================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Avoid ignitions
within 15 miles to the S through WSW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the
SSE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Recommend against
burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by
3:30 p.m. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>==============================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The smoke
management forecaster is available at (503)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> 945-7401.
The smoke management forecaster is available <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> to discuss
specific burns. The duty forecaster phone <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> number is
(503) 945-7401. Please call this number and <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> not
individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> avoid calling
before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> This forecast
is available on the Internet at: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure
your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
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