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<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED: Friday,
November 5, 2010 2:40 PM Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>1. DISCUSSION
AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>SATURDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpFirst style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>The massive upper-level ridge of high
pressure responsible for the recent spell of dry, warm and stagnant conditions
will continue to weaken and shift eastward. The ridge axis is forecast to
stretch from New Mexico to North Dakota with strengthening southwesterly flow
aloft over Oregon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>The second in a series of weather systems
will approach the coastline late in the day, with partly to mostly cloudy skies
but dry conditions expected over south-central Oregon. South to southwesterly
winds will keep surface temperatures well above normal, and cooling aloft will
raise afternoon mixing heights, making for good smoke dispersal conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>A cold front will likely spread rain across
south-central Oregon Sunday morning. Rain will turn to showers later Sunday
afternoon. Rainfall amounts should range from one-tenth to one-quarter of an
inch. Surface temperatures will cool to near normal with continued good smoke
dispersal conditions. Cooler air aloft will drop the snow level to around 5000
feet by evening and 4500 feet overnight.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Showers will taper off Monday, as a flat and
transitory upper-level ridge stabilizes the air mass slightly. Snow levels
will remain near 4500 feet and surface temperatures will cool to slightly below
normal. Transport winds will turn mostly westerly with fair to good smoke
dispersal conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>The next weather system is forecast to move
mainly into northern California and southern Oregon on Tuesday. That would
keep snow levels around 4500 feet or lower with rainfall amounts possibly in
excess of one-quarter of an inch. Transport winds will depend on the exact
track of the low-pressure center and may switch quickly from southerly to
westerly in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal conditions should remain fair to good.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpLast style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SATURDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
below 1500 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing
height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers to 2000 - 3000 ft during the
evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind S
to SW at 15 - 25 mph during the morning. Transport wind increases to SSW to SW
at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon then decreases to SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph
during the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind SSE
to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning. Surface wind increases to SSW to WSW
at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon then decreases to SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph
during the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SUNDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
3000 - 4000 ft during the morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at 19 - 33 mph during the morning becoming
W to NW at 18 - 30 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 20
mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MONDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
1800 - 2800 ft during the morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph. Surface wind WSW to WNW
at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>TUESDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3000 -
4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph during
the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon. Surface
wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming light and variable
during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS
FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> RANGE PORTION
OF ZONE 624<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>This instruction
is valid for burning conducted on Saturday, November 6, 2010.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>==================================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Avoid ignitions
within 12 miles to the S through SW of SSRAs. No additional restrictions
necessary. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>==============================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The smoke
management forecaster is available at (503)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> 945-7401.
The smoke management forecaster is available <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> to discuss
specific burns. The duty forecaster phone <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> number is
(503) 945-7401. Please call this number and <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> not
individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> avoid calling
before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> This forecast
is available on the Internet at: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure
your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
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