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<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED:
Wednesday, November 10, 2010 2:40 PM Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>***Due to the Veterans
Day holiday, there will be no smoke forecaster available on Thursday, November
11<sup>th</sup> and no forecasts will be issued. Friday’s burning
instructions will be issued early Friday morning.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>1. DISCUSSION
AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>THURSDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpFirst style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>A transitory upper-level ridge of high
pressure will slide over the region, around midday, and then advance eastward
into Idaho. That will bring a dry day with at least partly sunny skies. A
weak cold front will move onshore in the late afternoon and evening. Ahead of
the front, south to southwesterly transport winds will increase in the
afternoon. Warming aloft will suppress mixing heights with marginal to poor
smoke dispersal conditions. </span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
"Courier New"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>A weak cold front will bring a chance of
light showers Thursday night through Friday morning, with snow levels near 4000
feet. Rainfall totals should be less than one-tenth of an inch. A flat
upper-level ridge, in the eastern Gulf of Alaska, will bring a drying and cool
northwesterly flow aloft to the region Friday afternoon. Westerly transport
winds will turn more northerly by afternoon with improved mixing yielding fair
smoke dispersal conditions. A stabilizing air mass will quickly drop mixing
heights in the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>A broad upper-level ridge will continue to
amplify offshore, Saturday and Sunday, with a strong north-northwesterly flow
aloft over Oregon. Skies should stay mostly cloudy Saturday with a slight
chance of a light shower. More clearing is forecast for Sunday. The snow
level will slowly rise to above 7000 feet. Warming aloft will suppress mixing
heights with marginal to poor smoke dispersal conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpLast style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>THURSDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind S
to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning. Transport wind increases to SSW to WSW
at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon and evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface
wind increases to SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>FRIDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 - 2400 ft by late morning rising to 2500 -
3500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during
the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon. Surface
wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NE at 5 - 9 mph
during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SATURDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2000 -
3000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the
morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind
light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during
the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SUNDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2000 - 3000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming NNW
to NNE at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable
during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> RANGE PORTION
OF ZONE 624<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>This instruction
is valid for burning conducted on Thursday, November 11, 2010.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>==================================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Unfavorable
burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion. Delay ignitions until 10
a.m. Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the S through WSW of SSRAs. For units
that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least
35 miles to the S through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify
transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Recommend
against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete
ignitions by 3 p.m. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>==============================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The smoke
management forecaster is available at (503)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> 945-7401.
The smoke management forecaster is available <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> to discuss
specific burns. The duty forecaster phone <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> number is
(503) 945-7401. Please call this number and <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> not
individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> avoid calling
before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> This forecast
is available on the Internet at: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure
your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
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