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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED: Saturday, November 13, 2010 2:40 PM Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>SUNDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpFirst style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>A broad upper-level ridge will continue to amplify just offshore. A warm front is forecast to slowly weaken over Oregon, as the flow aloft turns from northwesterly to more northerly and begins to dry out. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain. The snow level will rise to near 9,000 feet. Warm air aloft will keep mixing heights suppressed with marginal smoke dispersal conditions.</span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY) <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>The offshore ridge will begin to flatten on Monday, allowing a weak weather system to slide down the southern British Columbia coastline. That will maintain at least partly cloudy skies, but it should stay dry with the snow level dropping slightly to near 8000 feet. Ventilation conditions should improve.</span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Strong northwesterly flow aloft is forecast for Tuesday with a weak weather system bringing some clouds and possibly breezy conditions in the morning. A transitory ridge will allow for afternoon sunbreaks. The snow level will drop to around 6000 feet, with cooling aloft and breezy conditions making for good smoke dispersion.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>The flow aloft will turn westerly on Wednesday, as an impressive weather system makes its way southward along the British Columbia coastline. Skies will be partly cloudy. The snow level may rise slightly, ahead of the approaching cold front, but increasing south to southwesterly transport winds should make for fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpLast style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SUNDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 - 2700 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 2300 - 3300 ft then lowers to 1200 - 2200 ft during the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind NNW to N at 12 - 22 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind decreases to WNW to NNW at 10 - 20 mph during the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MONDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 1200 - 2200 ft during the morning rising to 2300 - 3300 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph. Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>TUESDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 3200 - 4200 ft during the morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind WNW to NW at 15 - 29 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 12 - 22 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>WEDNESDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Sunday, November 14, 2010.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>==================================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the WNW through N of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the WNW through N in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 2:30 p.m. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>==============================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> This forecast is available on the Internet at: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>