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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED: Sunday, November 21, 2010 2:40 PM Jim Little<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> MONDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>A cold weather pattern has set up for the Pacific Northwest. In the upper atmosphere a strong ridge of high pressure has developed up in the eastern Pacific and the Gulf of Alaska with a cold trough extending from north-central Canada into southern California. This leaves the Pacific Northwest in a cold northerly flow aloft. There will be enough moisture for snow although amounts should be light, generally less than an inch although some locations could get as much as 2 inches.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Smoke dispersal conditions will be generally good with most areas seeing a southwesterly transport wind. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY – THURSDAY)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>The upper disturbance that moves through Monday afternoon and evening will bring another round of snow to the area. The snow will be tapering off on Tuesday as a drier flow moves over the region. Smoke dispersal conditions will be fair to good. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>For Wednesday and Thursday, the cold upper trough will move east and the ridge in the Pacific will begin to move over the area. Upper flow will be northerly and dry for mostly sunny weather. Temperatures, however, will remain cool. Cold nighttime temperatures will promote overnight inversions that will be slow to break and limit maximum mixing heights. Thus smoke dispersal conditions will be marginal Wednesday and beyond. </span><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MONDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft throughout the day.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind WSW to W at 26 - 46 mph during the morning. Transport wind increases to SW to W at 32 - 52 mph during the afternoon and increases to SW to W at 37 - 57 mph during the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind WSW to W at 16 - 30 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind increases to SW to WSW at 21 - 37 mph during the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>TUESDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day. Transport wind WNW to NW at 18 - 32 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind W to NW at 10 - 22 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>WEDNESDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2000 - 3000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>THURSDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2000 - 3000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Monday, November 22, 2010.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>==================================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SW through W of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the SW through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. No additional restrictions necessary. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>==============================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> This forecast is available on the Internet at: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>