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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED: Wednesday, February 9, 2011 2:40 PM Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>THURSDAY</span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Dry weather will continue with mostly sunny skies. The axis of a broad upper-level ridge is forecast to move close to the coastline. Subsidence will further suppress maximum mixing heights with generally light transport winds and poor smoke dispersal conditions</span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>On Friday the upper ridge axis is forecast to move east of the Cascades with the flow aloft becoming more westerly. Skies should remain mostly sunny with some increase in high clouds. Transport winds are forecast to increase and turn south-southwesterly during the afternoon. Maximum mixing heights will rise slightly with smoke dispersal conditions becoming poor to marginal.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>On Saturday a Pacific cold front is forecast to spread rain and mountain snow across western Washington, and northwestern Oregon, with increasing clouds across south-central Oregon. A chance of light rain will spread into the region Saturday night. Smoke dispersal conditions will become marginal to fair, with cooling aloft leading to slightly higher afternoon mixing heights. South to southwesterly transport winds will continue to increase.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>By Sunday, the flattened upper-level ridge axis is forecast to be near the Oregon/Idaho border with westerly flow aloft over Oregon. The first in what appears will be a series of Pacific storms is forecast to weaken over northern Oregon, with only a chance of light rain extending into south-central Oregon. The snow level is forecast to remain above 6000 feet. Smoke dispersal conditions should remain marginal to fair with southwesterly transport winds</span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>THURSDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 500 feet early rising to 800 – 1200 feet by late morning rising to 1400 – 2000 feet during the afternoon. Mixing height lowering below 500 feet in the evening.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>FRIDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1700 - 2700 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SATURDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2000 - 3000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SUNDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Thursday, February 10, 2011.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>==================================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion. Delay ignitions until 11 a.m. Avoid ignitions within 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles in all directions of SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>==============================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> 945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> This forecast is available on the Internet at: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>