SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Thu Oct 15 14:27:08 PDT 2009

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Thursday, October 15, 2009       2:30 PM      Nick Yonker

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

Upper level ridge has built over the region today diminishing the rainfall activity but still allowing plenty of cloud cover.  This ridge will slowly slip to the east tonight and Friday allowing a very wet front to move into the northwest corner of the state tomorrow.  Models show this front stalling as it moves into northwest Oregon and dumping plenty of rain.  Most other parts of the region, including the southwest and the Cascades eastward, will see very little, if any, rain tomorrow.  Air mass will remain fairly stable as warm air remains aloft.  Areas where low level warming occurs due to less cloud cover will have better mixing.  Breezy southerly wind flow will provide good smoke dispersion.

    OUTLOOK (SATURDAY - MONDAY)

Upper level trough and front finally push through the region Saturday and Saturday night after being stalled along the coast from Friday.  Rain will decrease later Saturday.  Minor ridging builds in Sunday, then will be followed by yet another front and upper low Sunday night and Monday.  Air mass will destabilize Saturday as the first front and trough move through. Air mass stabilizes some on Sunday, and then destabilizes again Monday.  Smoke dispersion will be mostly good to excellent through the period.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING
Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 2800 - 3800 ft by late morning.
Transport wind S to SW at 14 - 28 mph.
Surface wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind SSW to WSW at 16 - 30 mph.
Surface wind SSW to SW at 9 - 15 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height 1800 - 2800 ft.
Transport wind decreases to SSW to SW at 12 - 22 mph.
Surface wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING
Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3200 - 4200 ft by late morning.
Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph.
Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height lowers to 2200 - 3200 ft.
Transport wind S to SW at 15 - 25 mph.
Surface wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 16 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.
Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind decreases to SSE to SW at 5 - 9 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING
Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind S to SSW at 13 - 25 mph.
Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 14 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph.
Surface wind S to SW at 9 - 15 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height 1800 - 2800 ft.
Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph.
Surface wind shifts to NNW to NE at 6 - 10 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING
Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2800 - 3800 ft by late morning.
Transport wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind shifts to SW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface wind shifts to SW to W at 6 - 10 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height 2700 - 3700 ft.
Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors S to SW.

OUTLOOK:

SATURDAY
Mixing height 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.

SUNDAY
Mixing height 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

MONDAY
Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind S to SW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA
These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, October 16, 2009.
=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612
Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 602 and 603
Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

Zone 615, 616 west of R8W, 619, and 620
Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.  South of T35S in Zone 620 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W
Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Cascades

All zones except zone 611
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.

Zone 611
Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

==============================================================
4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to
    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to
    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,
    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.
    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:
      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:
      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of
    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.
    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of
    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.
    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of
    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.
    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster
    prior to ignition.

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