SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Sun Nov 21 16:05:09 PST 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Sunday, November 21, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    MONDAY
A cold weather pattern has set up for the Pacific Northwest.  In the upper atmosphere a strong ridge of high pressure has developed up in the eastern Pacific and the Gulf of Alaska with a cold trough extending from north-central Canada into southern California.  This leaves the Pacific Northwest in a cold northerly flow aloft.  Computer models indicate one disturbance in this northerly flow will move through the region Sunday afternoon and evening with another following Monday night and early Tuesday.  The latest model runs are also more aggressive with the potential for significant low level snow, especially in northern sections.  Some light accumulation (less than an inch) is possible in valley locations the north Sunday night and early Monday. For southern zones the snow level will likely be about 2500 feet and above for Monday.  Mountain locations will generally receive 2-4 inches of new snow through Monday evening.
Smoke dispersal conditions will be generally fair with most areas seeing a southwesterly transport wind, but a northerly component to the transports will develop in the northern zones.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY - THURSDAY)
The upper disturbance that moves through Monday afternoon and evening has the potential to be a significant snow producer for virtually all of western Oregon.  Snow levels will reach to all elevations of interior western Valleys.  Accumulations depend on the amount of available moisture.  As mentioned above, latest model runs are more aggressive with snow amounts. At the high end, 2-4 inches is possible late Monday in the Willamette Valley with greater amounts at higher elevations. Drier air will filter into northern sections to end the snow Tuesday.  Southern valley locations could see 1-3 inches during the day on Tuesday.  Smoke dispersal conditions will be mostly fair to good throughout western Oregon.
For Wednesday and Thursday, the cold upper trough will move east and the ridge in the Pacific will begin to move over the area.  Upper flow will be northerly and dry for mostly sunny weather. Temperatures, however, will remain cool.  Cold nighttime temperatures will promote overnight inversions that will be slow to break and limit maximum mixing heights.  Thus smoke dispersal conditions will be marginal Wednesday and beyond.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind WNW at 20 - 36 mph.

Surface wind W to WNW at 12 - 24 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind WNW at 23 - 41 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind NW at 19 - 33 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NW at 10 - 20 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 12 - 24 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 15 - 29 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 14 - 28 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3300 - 4300 ft.

Transport wind W to WNW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind W to WNW at 13 - 25 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind increases to WSW to W at 16 - 30 mph.

Surface wind increases to SW to W at 12 - 24 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind W to WNW at 15 - 29 mph.

Surface wind W to WNW at 12 - 22 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2400 - 3400 ft.

Transport wind WSW to W at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind WSW to W at 10 - 22 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 14 - 28 mph.

Surface wind SW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

TUESDAY

Mixing height 3000 to 4000 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1800 to 2800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming E to SE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1700 to 2700 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Monday, November 22, 2010.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 619

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S.  Call the forecaster.

Cascades

All zones except Zone 610 and 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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