SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Tue Oct 5 14:48:09 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Tuesday, October 5, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    WEDNESDAY
A nearly stationary upper level low remains over southern California while the main Pacific jet stream is to the north, cutting into central British Columbia on Wednesday.  A thermal trough extends from California's central valley to off the southern Oregon coast.  Models show the trough shifting inland during the day.  Transport winds will start out easterly but then go light and variable as the trough moves over the area and by the end of the day there will be a slight westerly tendency.  With the variable wind direction recommend against large burns or burns near SSRA's.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (THURSDAY - SATURDAY)
On Thursday the upper low over California kicks out to the northeast and weakens.  The center of the low will be over about Salmon, Idaho by evening.  Low level flow will be onshore with a south through southwest transport winds most areas.  Temperatures will drop to near average for early October.  Upper level flow goes southwesterly by Friday with a weak weather system moving into Washington early in the day. Expect southerly transport winds which will help to push temperatures up a few degrees.  A second Pacific weather system spreads rain to most of the region by evening.  Saturday begins with rain most areas but the precipitation will be retreating northward during the day.  Expect continued southerly transport winds but low mixing heights in the north.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1200 - 2200 ft.

Transport wind NE to E at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2400 - 3400 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2900 - 3900 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

EVENING

Mixing height 3200 - 4200 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1900 - 2900 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3400 - 4400 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 1900 - 2900 ft.

Transport wind increases to SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind increases to SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind E to SE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind E to SE at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

EVENING

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

THURSDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2800 to 3800 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3200 to 4200 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2100 to 3100 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1600 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 18 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Wednesday, October 6, 2010.

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Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed.

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 618

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 619

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 609, 610, and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 617 and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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