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<div>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS</div>
<div>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER</div>
<div>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY</div>
<div> </div>
<div>ISSUED: Friday, October 16, 2009 2:30 PM Nick Yonker</div>
<div> </div>
<div>1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623</div>
<div> </div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Upper level ridge is stubbornly shifting to the east. Incoming frontal system will mainly stay off the coast today so rainfall over the northwest corner of the state is much reduced from what was expected yesterday. The front
will hang mainly off the coast overnight before kicking onshore on Saturday. Rain will increase then in most areas west of the Cascades. Air mass will destabilize as the front moves in with only minor stability tomorrow morning. Increasing southerly wind
flow should make smoke dispersion mostly good to excellent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> OUTLOOK (SUNDAY - TUESDAY)</div>
<div> </div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Weak ridging builds in Sunday following Saturday’s frontal passage. However, the ridge won’t be strong enough to dissipate all moisture so expect continued mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers. Next front and upper
low take aim for the state Sunday night to Monday morning bringing another round of moisture. It appears right now that this system will take a more southerly track and give the greatest amount of moisture to the southern half of the state. The low will move
by to the east Monday afternoon and evening and yield to another minor ridge early Tuesday. Again, this ridge will last a very short time before another front moves in later Tuesday. For the most part the air mass will be unstable and smoke dispersion good
under this highly progressive weather pattern.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>2. DISPERSION</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind S at 18 - 32 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind SW at 20 - 35 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind shifts to SSW to WSW at 12 - 22 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind decreases to SW to WSW at 14 - 28 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind SW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind S to SSW at 15 - 30 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 14 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind SW at 18 - 32 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind SSW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind similar to afternoon.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind SSW to SW at 15 - 30 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 18 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind SW at 18 - 32 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind similar to morning.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind decreases to SW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind shifts to N to NE at 8 - 14 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 16 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind SW to W at 9 - 15 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind SW to W at 9 - 15 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind SW to W at 5 - 9 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>OUTLOOK:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>SUNDAY</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">In the north mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day. In the south mixing height 2300 to 3300 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning
becoming S to SW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MONDAY</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day. Transport wind SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph. Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>TUESDAY</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height 3500 to 4500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SSW at 13 - 25 mph. Surface wind SE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA</div>
<div>These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, October 17, 2009.</div>
<div>=================================================================</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Coast Range</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All Zones</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Cascades</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All zones except zone 611</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 611</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Siskiyous</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>==============================================================</div>
<div>4. SPECIAL NOTE:</div>
<div> </div>
<div> Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to</div>
<div> discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to </div>
<div> discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available, </div>
<div> leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.</div>
<div> Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. </div>
<div> </div>
<div> The forecast is available on the Internet at: </div>
<div> <a href="http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management"><font color="#0000FF"><u>http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management</u></font></a> </div>
<div> </div>
<div> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: </div>
<div> <a href="http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml"><font color="#0000FF"><u>http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml</u></font></a> </div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster </div>
<div> prior to ignition.</div>
<div> </div>
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