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<div>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS</div>
<div>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER</div>
<div>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY</div>
<div> </div>
<div>ISSUED: Tuesday, October 20, 2009 2:30 PM Jim Little</div>
<div> </div>
<div>1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623</div>
<div> </div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Tuesday’s upper ridge axis shifts east and an upper trough moves mainly into British Columbia and Washington on Wednesday. The trailing cold front is rather weak since most of its support well to the north. Rain will reach
the north coast early in the morning and spread slowly south and east. However, rainfall will be light, around .25 in the north coast range, .10 in the Willamette Valley and just a few sprinkles elsewhere. The weak front will do little to help push mixing
heights up and smoke dispersal conditions will remain poor to marginal. </div>
<div> </div>
<div> OUTLOOK (THURSDAY-SATURDAY)</div>
<div> </div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Another upper ridge builds over the area for dry weather and light winds Wednesday – ventilation conditions will be poor in the north marginal to fair in the south. The ridge axis aloft shifts slightly east and another very
weak front spreads some light rain to northwest Oregon by Friday evening. This will be followed by another upper ridge Saturday. There is some evidence of a pattern change beginning Sunday or early next week that should alleviate the stagnant conditions in
the valleys.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; "> </div>
<div>2. DISPERSION</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div>Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind SW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div>Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind decreases to SW to W at 6 - 10 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div>Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind similar to afternoon.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div>Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div>Mixing height rising to 2500 - 3500 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind SSE to SW at 5 - 9 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div>Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.</div>
<div>Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div>Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div>Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind increases to SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div>Mixing height 1000 - 1700 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.</div>
<div>Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div>Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 12 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div>Mixing height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind shifts to W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind shifts to W to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div>Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.</div>
<div>Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>OUTLOOK:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>THURSDAY</div>
<div>In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon. In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 to 2700 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft
during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>FRIDAY</div>
<div>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind light and variable.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>SATURDAY</div>
<div>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 2800 to 3800 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA</div>
<div>These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Wednesday, October 21, 2009.</div>
<div>=================================================================</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Coast Range</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W</div>
<div>Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616. Call the forecaster.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 602 and 603</div>
<div>Units must be 300 tons or less spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in
Zone 603.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W</div>
<div>Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616. Call the forecaster.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 618, 619, and 620</div>
<div>Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. South of T35S in Zone 620 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Cascades</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610, 616, 617, and 623</div>
<div>Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate. Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 611</div>
<div>Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 620</div>
<div>No burning allowed.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 622</div>
<div>Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. East of R2W, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Siskiyous</div>
<div>Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>==============================================================</div>
<div>4. SPECIAL NOTE:</div>
<div> </div>
<div> Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to</div>
<div> discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to </div>
<div> discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available, </div>
<div> leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.</div>
<div> Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. </div>
<div> </div>
<div> The forecast is available on the Internet at: </div>
<div> <a href="http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management"><font color="#0000FF"><u>http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management</u></font></a> </div>
<div> </div>
<div> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: </div>
<div> <a href="http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml"><font color="#0000FF"><u>http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml</u></font></a> </div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster </div>
<div> prior to ignition.</div>
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