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<div>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS</div>
<div>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER</div>
<div>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY</div>
<div> </div>
<div>ISSUED: Thursday, October 22, 2009 2:30 PM Nick Yonker</div>
<div> </div>
<div>1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623</div>
<div> </div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Upper level ridge has built over the state today but is getting flattened somewhat by an approaching storm system. The warm front will ride over the top of the ridge this afternoon and evening providing some light rain to
the northern part of the state today. The cold front will then ride through on Friday with increasing moisture during the morning, continuing into the afternoon. Air mass is quite stable under the ridge and will remain so until the cold front can bring cooler
air aloft tomorrow afternoon. Smoke dispersion will be poor overnight then improves through the day as SW’erly flow increases Friday morning.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> OUTLOOK (SATURDAY - MONDAY)</div>
<div> </div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Upper level ridge will rebuild over the state Saturday following Friday’s front. Air mass stabilizes again. Ridge will continue over the region into Sunday before another front moves in during the afternoon. Expect another
round of moisture Sunday afternoon and evening turning to showers on Monday. Snow level appears it will lower below 5000 ft on Monday. Cooler air aloft will destabilize the air mass again on Monday. Expect poor to fair smoke dispersion Saturday and most
of Sunday then improving dispersion Sunday afternoon through Monday.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>2. DISPERSION</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind SW at 18 - 32 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind decreases to WSW to WNW at 12 - 24 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind shifts to WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind WNW to NNW at 12 - 24 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind W to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind SSW to SW at 9 - 15 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind SW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind SW to W at 9 - 15 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind shifts to W to NW at 12 - 22 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind decreases to WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind decreases to SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind shifts to W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind shifts to NNW to NE at 5 - 9 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind SW to W at 6 - 12 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind WSW to NW at 5 - 9 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>OUTLOOK:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>SATURDAY</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming
NNE to ENE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>SUNDAY</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SW to WSW at 10 - 22 mph. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MONDAY</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day. Transport wind W to NW at 13 - 25 mph. Surface wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA</div>
<div>These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, October 23, 2009.</div>
<div>=================================================================</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Coast Range</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 601, 602, 603, 612, and 618</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs. Avoid ignitions before noon in Zone 602 and 603.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616. Call the forecaster.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 616 east of R9W</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S. Call the forecaster.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 619 and 620</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. South of T35S in Zone 620 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Cascades</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All zones except zone 611</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 611</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Siskiyous</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>==============================================================</div>
<div>4. SPECIAL NOTE:</div>
<div> </div>
<div> Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to</div>
<div> discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to </div>
<div> discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available, </div>
<div> leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.</div>
<div> Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. </div>
<div> </div>
<div> The forecast is available on the Internet at: </div>
<div> <a href="http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management"><font color="#0000FF"><u>http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management</u></font></a> </div>
<div> </div>
<div> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: </div>
<div> <a href="http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml"><font color="#0000FF"><u>http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml</u></font></a> </div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster </div>
<div> prior to ignition.</div>
<div> </div>
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