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<div>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS</div>
<div>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER</div>
<div>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY</div>
<div> </div>
<div>ISSUED: Friday, November 13, 2009 2:30 PM Nick Yonker</div>
<div> </div>
<div>1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623</div>
<div> </div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Upper level low is moving by to the east this afternoon and will give way to a ridge moving in overnight and tomorrow. Air mass will remain quite cool aloft so stabilization will be slow. Expect mostly good mixing in the
north while the south will stabilize quicker. Other than patchy morning fog, look for a mostly fair but cool day. Clouds increase during the afternoon, especially north, as a warm front will overrun the ridge. Moisture from the front may move into the north
by late afternoon to early evening. Expect mostly fair to good smoke dispersion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> OUTLOOK (SUNDAY - TUESDAY)</div>
<div> </div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Upper level ridge slides to the east by Sunday with continued clouds and light moisture over mainly the northern part of the state. Upper level trough in the eastern Pacific will slowly develop and move toward the region through
Monday and Tuesday with the cold front not moving in until late Tuesday. Southerly wind flow will increase during the period, so even though the air mass will be fairly stable, smoke dispersion should be pretty good.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>2. DISPERSION</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 601-612 (North Coast Range and Cascades):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind light and variable but favors SW to NW and controlled by local terrain.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind increases to S to SW at 10 - 18 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind increases to S to SW at 5 - 9 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind S to SW at 13 - 25 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind similar to afternoon.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 - 2200 ft by late morning.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind light and variable but favors SE to SW and controlled by local terrain.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height rising to 2300 - 3300 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind increases to SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind similar to morning.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind shifts to S to SW at 8 - 12 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind increases to SE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>OUTLOOK:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>SUNDAY</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early, rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2200 to 3200 ft during the afternoon. In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning
rising to 1500 to 2500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 18 mph. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MONDAY</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">In the north mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon. In the south mixing height 1000 to 2000 ft during the morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind S to SSW at 22 - 40 mph. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>TUESDAY</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">In the north mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising to 2800 to 3800 ft during the afternoon. In the south mixing height 1000 to 2000 ft during the morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind S to SSW at 12 - 22 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 15 - 30 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA</div>
<div>These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, November 14, 2009.</div>
<div>=================================================================</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Coast Range</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 601, 602, 603, and 612</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616. Call the forecaster.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 616 east of R9W</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S. Call the forecaster.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 618 and 619</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 620</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S. Call the forecaster.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Cascades</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610, 617, and 623</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 611</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 616</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 620 and 622</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Siskiyous</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>==============================================================</div>
<div>4. SPECIAL NOTE:</div>
<div> </div>
<div> Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to</div>
<div> discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to </div>
<div> discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available, </div>
<div> leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.</div>
<div> Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. </div>
<div> </div>
<div> The forecast is available on the Internet at: </div>
<div> <a href="http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management"><font color="#0000FF"><u>http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management</u></font></a> </div>
<div> </div>
<div> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: </div>
<div> <a href="http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml"><font color="#0000FF"><u>http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml</u></font></a> </div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster </div>
<div> prior to ignition.</div>
<div> </div>
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