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<div>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS</div>
<div>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER</div>
<div>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY</div>
<div> </div>
<div>ISSUED: Thursday, November 19, 2009 2:30 PM Nick Yonker</div>
<div> </div>
<div>1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623</div>
<div> </div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Warm front has pushed off to the northeast with the region in the warm sector of the frontal system. Cold front will swing into the state overnight tonight and push through Friday morning to afternoon. Expect plenty of rain
and wind with the heaviest amounts of moisture over the southern part of the state. Colder air will move in with the front, and the following trough. The snow level will lower to 3000 ft by late morning to early afternoon and down to 2000 ft Friday night.
Air mass will remain mostly unstable and with decent wind flow, will make for excellent smoke dispersion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> OUTLOOK (SATURDAY - MONDAY)</div>
<div> </div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Minor ridging moves in Saturday morning but will quickly disappear as the next front and trough come racing in from the Pacific. Expect moisture to increase during the late morning to early afternoon. Temperatures will moderate
some with the snow level rising to 4000 – 5000 ft Saturday evening. Moisture decreases Sunday as another weak ridge builds in. A warm front will ride through the ridge and increase moisture again later Sunday to early Monday. Overall, expect a very progressive
weather pattern, keeping the air mass mostly unstable and dispersion good to excellent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>2. DISPERSION</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind SW at 20 - 35 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 22 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind shifts to W to NW and decreases to 10 - 20 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind shifts to WSW to WNW and decreases to 8 - 12 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind SW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height 4000 - 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind S to SW at 15 - 29 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 20 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind shifts to WSW to WNW and decreases to 10 - 18 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind shifts to WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind SW to W at 10 - 20 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind SSW to W at 4 - 8 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind SSW to WSW at 13 - 25 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind SW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind decreases to WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind similar to afternoon.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind similar to afternoon.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind SW to W at 6 - 10 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind shifts to W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 12 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Transport wind SW to W at 8 - 14 mph.</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Surface wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>OUTLOOK:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>SATURDAY</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day. Transport wind SSW to SW at 18 - 30 mph during the morning becoming S to SSW at 24 - 42 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming
S to SSW at 14 - 28 mph during the afternoon.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>SUNDAY</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day. Transport wind W to WNW at 10 - 22 mph. Surface wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MONDAY</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at 25 - 45 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 20 - 35 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind
S to SSW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA</div>
<div>These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, November 20, 2009.</div>
<div>=================================================================</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Coast Range</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All Zones</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Cascades</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 616, 617, 622, and 623</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 610, 611, and 620</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Siskiyous</div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>==============================================================</div>
<div>4. SPECIAL NOTE:</div>
<div> </div>
<div> Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to</div>
<div> discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to </div>
<div> discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available, </div>
<div> leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.</div>
<div> Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. </div>
<div> </div>
<div> The forecast is available on the Internet at: </div>
<div> <a href="http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management"><font color="#0000FF"><u>http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management</u></font></a> </div>
<div> </div>
<div> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: </div>
<div> <a href="http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml"><font color="#0000FF"><u>http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml</u></font></a> </div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster </div>
<div> prior to ignition.</div>
<div> </div>
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