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<div>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS</div>
<div>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER</div>
<div>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY</div>
<div> </div>
<div>ISSUED: Sunday, May 2, 2010 2:30 PM Jim Little</div>
<div> </div>
<div>1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623</div>
<div> </div>
<div> MONDAY</div>
<div> </div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">The flat upper ridge that was over the region Sunday gets suppressed as a cold upper trough digs into British Columbia and extends southward into Oregon. The associated front brings windy and cold weather into the area during
the day. Rain will start overnight Sunday night in the north and spread southward. Snow levels drop dramatically as the front moves through falling to 2500 feet in the north by late afternoon and to the same elevation by Tuesday morning in the south. Transport
winds will be mostly northwesterly to west in the north and southwesterly switching to northwesterly in the south. Mixing heights will be highest in the north with good smoke dispersal conditions, while southern zones will see mixing heights mostly in the
3000 to 4000 foot range for fair smoke dispersal conditions. </div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; "> </div>
<div> OUTLOOK (TUESDAY-THURSDAY)</div>
<div> </div>
<div style="padding-left: 36pt; ">The cold upper trough lies east to west over the region on Tuesday with an upper low closing off in southern Washington by evening. Precipitation will be limited but morning snow levels will be just 1500 feet. Widely scattered
showers continue Wednesday but the air mass slowly warms and temperatures recover slightly. By Thursday minor ridging cuts off the showers and temperatures bump up a few more degrees but will still be below seasonal averages. Mixing heights throughout the
outlook period will be quite high for good smoke dispersal conditions. By Thursday transport wind speeds will drop off and that, along with directional variability, could limit burning opportunities in some areas. </div>
<div><font face="Consolas, monospace"> </font></div>
<div>2. DISPERSION</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div>Mixing height 1800 - 2800 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind WNW to NW at 18 - 30 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind WNW to NW at 10 - 22 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div>Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind W to WNW at 13 - 25 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind W to NW at 10 - 20 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div>Mixing height 2700 - 3700 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind WNW to NW at 13 - 25 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind W to NW at 9 - 15 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div>Mixing height 2600 - 3600 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind SW to W at 12 - 24 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind SW to W at 12 - 22 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div>Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div>Mixing height 2700 - 3700 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div>Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind SW to W at 12 - 22 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind SW to W at 10 - 18 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div>Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind shifts to WNW to NNW and decreases to 5 - 9 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind shifts to WNW to NNW and decreases to 5 - 9 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div>Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.</div>
<div>Transport wind NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind WNW to NNW and decreases to 5 - 9 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):</div>
<div> </div>
<div>MORNING</div>
<div>Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>AFTERNOON</div>
<div>Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.</div>
<div>Transport wind shifts to W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind shifts to W to NW at 6 - 12 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>EVENING</div>
<div>Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.</div>
<div>Transport wind shifts to W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.</div>
<div>Surface wind shifts to W to NW at 6 - 12 mph.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>OUTLOOK:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>TUESDAY</div>
<div>Mixing height 2400 to 3400 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind WSW to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the
morning becoming NW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>WEDNESDAY</div>
<div>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3200 to 4200 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>THURSDAY</div>
<div>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3100 to 4100 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA</div>
<div>These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Monday, May 3, 2010.</div>
<div>=================================================================</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Coast Range</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 601 and 612</div>
<div>Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 602 and 603</div>
<div>Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Avoid burning in or near corridors. Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603. Call the forecaster.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 615</div>
<div>Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 616 west of R8W</div>
<div>Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 616 east of R9W and 620</div>
<div>Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S in Zone 620. Call the forecaster.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 618 and 619</div>
<div>Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Cascades</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 616, 617, and 623</div>
<div>Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate. From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 610 and 611</div>
<div>Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 620</div>
<div>No burning allowed.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Zone 622</div>
<div>Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. East of R2W, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Siskiyous</div>
<div>Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>==============================================================</div>
<div>4. SPECIAL NOTE:</div>
<div> </div>
<div> Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to</div>
<div> discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to </div>
<div> discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available, </div>
<div> leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.</div>
<div> Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. </div>
<div> </div>
<div> The forecast is available on the Internet at: </div>
<div> <a href="http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management">http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management</a> </div>
<div> </div>
<div> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: </div>
<div> <a href="http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml">http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml</a> </div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of </div>
<div> downwind SSRA. Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </div>
<div> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster </div>
<div> prior to ignition.</div>
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