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<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED: Friday,
October 8, 2010 2:30 PM Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>1. DISCUSSION
AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>SATURDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainTextCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>The jet stream is
transitioning to a more autumn-like pattern. A developing westerly flow aloft
pushed a very weak cold front across Washington and the northern half of
western Oregon on Friday. That system was primarily a cloud-maker with only
spotty light rainfall. However, it did cool the air aloft and increase the
transport winds enough to improve ventilation conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainTextCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainTextCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>A stronger system, with some
entrained tropical moisture, will approach the coastline early Saturday. The
bulk of the rainfall is forecast to stay north of Oregon, but some rain is
likely across the northern half of the region Saturday morning, with a chance
of light rain south.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainTextCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainTextCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>The cold front is forecast
to stall and push north, as a warm front, Saturday afternoon and night. That
will likely result in a considerable contrast in rainfall, from northwest to
southeast, across western Oregon. The north coastal range will see the most
rain, perhaps 1-2 inches, while the southern Cascades could stay dry.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainTextCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainTextCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Increasing southerly transport
winds will aid ventilation, but warming aloft and cloud-cover will suppress
afternoon mixing heights, especially north and west. Smoke dispersal
conditions will be fair in the north and good in the south.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainTextCxSpLast style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Rain will increase, from west to east, across
the entire region Sunday, as the final cold front in this series of Pacific
storms comes onshore. Brisk southwesterly transport winds will veer to
northwesterly, in the wake of the cold front, Sunday afternoon. There will not
be much post-frontal shower activity Sunday evening, because the air aloft will
stay fairly mild. The snow level should stay above 7000 feet. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Clearing skies should lead to strong
surfaced-based inversions by Monday morning with recent rains possibly leading
to valley fog formation. The flow aloft is forecast to dry out and turn
northwesterly on Monday. Transport winds will turn northerly across the
northern zones and northeasterly across the southern zones. That will aid in
the drying of the low-level air mass and should help to clear fog from most
valley locations in the afternoon. Even with some sunshine, mixing heights
will be suppressed by subsidence aloft, associated with the building ridge of
high pressure, so smoke dispersal conditions will be marginal at best.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpLast style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Strong surface-based inversions are likely
again Tuesday morning, as the upper-level ridge moves directly over Oregon.
Areas of morning valley fog and low clouds are likely, with afternoon clearing.
Low mixing heights and light offshore transport winds will likely make for poor
ventilation conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 601-612
(North Coast Range and Cascades):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 15 - 25 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind SE
to S at 8 - 12 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
2800 - 3800 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
SSW at 18 - 32 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind
similar to morning.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind
similar to afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 12 - 22 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind SE
to SSW at 6 - 12 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
2700 - 3700 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind S
to SW at 12 - 24 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind SSE
to SW at 6 - 10 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
1500 - 2500 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
SSW to SW at 10 - 20 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind
similar to afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind S
to SW at 10 - 18 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind SSE
to SW at 6 - 10 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
3000 - 4000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind SSW
to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
1000 - 2000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
becomes light and variable but favors and controlled by local terrain.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind
becomes light and variable but favors SW and controlled by local terrain.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SUNDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>In the north
mixing height 2100 to 3100 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft
during the afternoon. In the south mixing height 1300 to 2300 ft during the
morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to
WSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph during
the afternoon. Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming
WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MONDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft by late morning rising to 2600 to
3600 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind
light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph during
the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>TUESDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1600 ft by late morning rising to 1700 to
2700 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the
morning becoming NE to E at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>These
instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, October 9, 2010.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>=================================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Coast Range<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 601 and 612<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5
below.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 602 and 603<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw
River in Zone 603.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 615 and 616
west of R8W<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616. Call the forecaster.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 616 east of
R9W<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S. Call the forecaster.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 618, 619,
and 620<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind
SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Cascades<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>All zones except
zone 611<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind
SSRAs for smoke to dissipate. Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 611<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Siskiyous<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>==============================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Call the
smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> discuss
burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> discuss daily
burning. If the forecaster is not available, <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> leave a message
and he will return your call as soon as possible.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Avoid calling
between 2 to 2:30 p.m. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The forecast
is available on the Internet at: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure
your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>5. STANDARD
GUIDANCE MATRIX:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * Greater than
5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind
SSRA. Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 500
ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * 3000 - 5000
ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind
SSRA. Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 750
ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * Less than
3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind
SSRA. Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 750
ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * All
exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> prior to
ignition.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
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