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<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED: Sunday,
October 10, 2010 2:30 PM Jim Little<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>1. DISCUSSION
AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>
MONDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>The remains of Sunday’s active front are well
to the east on Monday. Upper level flow is nearly due west to east but there
is a hint of an upper level ridge building offshore. Because of the copious
recent rains, wet ground and clearing skies will give rise to extensive valley
fog. A thermal trough building offshore will turn transport winds north to
north-northeast. This is a dry flow and should help to dissipate any fog or
low cloudiness by mid-day. Mixing heights will be high enough for smoke
dispersal conditions to remain in the fair category during the afternoon. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>
EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY – THURSDAY)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>The ridge aloft continues to develop Tuesday.
Initially it will be offshore but it will drift eastward to over the Pacific
Northwest by afternoon. The thermal trough continues and strengthens offshore
for an east to northeast transport flow most areas. However, warm air aloft
and sinking air with the upper ridge will make smoke dispersal conditions poor
through much of the region. By Wednesday the upper ridge axis will extend from
central Nevada, through central Oregon and northward to Alberta. It will
continue its eastward drift. Low level flow remains offshore but maximum
mixing heights will not get very high – anticipate unfavorable burning
conditions most areas for Wednesday. On Thursday the upper ridge continues its
push east. Flow aloft becomes southwesterly and temperatures aloft begin to
cool. This will help maximum mixing heights recover to a more favorable
level. Low level flow goes onshore with a generally south or south-southwest
transport winds. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
1900 - 2900 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
light and variable.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
rising to 3600 - 4600 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
increases to N to ENE at 6 - 12 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind
increases to N to NE at 6 - 10 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind NNE
to ENE at 10 - 18 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 605-611
(North Cascades):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
2100 - 3100 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
NNW to NE at 6 - 10 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind NNW
to NE at 6 - 10 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
3100 - 4100 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind N
to NE at 6 - 12 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind N to
NE at 6 - 12 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
1000 - 1600 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind NE
to E at 6 - 12 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind NE
to E at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind NE
to ENE at 10 - 16 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind NE
to ENE at 8 - 14 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
2800 - 3800 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
increases to NNE to NE at 10 - 22 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind NNE
to NE at 10 - 16 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
NNE to ENE at 10 - 16 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind NNE
to ENE at 6 - 12 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
1400 - 2400 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
light and variable.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
rising to 2900 - 3900 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
increases to NNW to NNE at 8 - 14 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind
increases to NNW to NNE at 8 - 14 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
shifts to NE to E at 6 - 10 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>TUESDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>In the north
mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning
rising to 1600 to 2600 ft during the afternoon. In the south mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 to 2300 ft by late morning rising to 2000 to
3000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph during the
morning becoming NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind
light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph during
the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>WEDNESDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1600 ft by late morning rising to 1800 to
2800 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind
light and variable.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>THURSDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming
light and variable during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>These
instructions are valid for burning conducted on Monday, October 11, 2010.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>=================================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Coast Range<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>All Zones<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind
SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Cascades<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 605 and 606<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in Zone 606. Call the forecaster.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 607 and 608<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 609, 610,
611, 617, and 623<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind
SSRAs for smoke to dissipate. South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 500
tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 616<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be 1000
tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. South
of T30S units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 620 and 622<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>No burning
allowed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Siskiyous<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>==============================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Call the
smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> discuss
burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> discuss daily
burning. If the forecaster is not available, <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> leave a
message and he will return your call as soon as possible.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Avoid calling
between 2 to 2:30 p.m. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The forecast
is available on the Internet at: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure
your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>5. STANDARD
GUIDANCE MATRIX:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * Greater than
5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind
SSRA. Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 500
ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * 3000 - 5000
ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind
SSRA. Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 750
ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * Less than
3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind
SSRA. Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 750
ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * All
exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> prior to
ignition.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
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