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<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED: Thursday,
October 21, 2010 2:30 PM Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>1. DISCUSSION
AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>FRIDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpFirst style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>The first in a series of progressively
stronger weather systems will likely bring some very light rain to much of
western Oregon in the early morning, with a decreasing chance of showers during
the day. Rainfall totals will likely range from around one-tenth to
one-quarter of an inch. Cooling aloft will lift mixing heights and
south-southwesterly transport winds will provide fair to good daytime smoke
dispersal conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>The next weather system will spread more
significant rain across western Oregon Friday night and Saturday, with an
additional one-half to three-quarters of an inch likely by Saturday evening.
The rain should briefly let up in the afternoon with increasing
south-southwesterly transport winds making for good smoke dispersal conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>A strong warm front will renew the steady
rain across western Oregon Saturday night, followed by a moisture laden cold
front early Sunday morning. This system could bring another 1-2 inches of
rain, especially north, along with strong southerly winds. A strong westerly
jet stream, aimed right at Oregon, will continue significant shower activity
Sunday afternoon through Monday, with the snow level dropping from more than
6000 feet early Sunday to below 4000 feet on Monday. Several inches of snow
accumulation are likely, above 4000 feet, by Monday night.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpLast style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 601, 602,
603, 612 and 615-620 (North and South Coast Range):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind SE
to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
increases to S to SW at 10 - 20 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind S to
SW at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind SE
to S at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 605-611 and
616-623 (North and South Cascades):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
below 2000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind
light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind S
to SW at 9 - 15 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind
similar to morning.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
1300 - 2300 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
decreases to SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind similar
to afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SATURDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
3200 to 4200 ft during the morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph. Surface wind SSE to SSW
at 6 - 10 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SUNDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
4000 to 5000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind SW to SW at 28 - 48 mph during the morning becoming WSW to W at
25 - 45 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSW to SW at 10 - 20 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MONDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
3500 to 4500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind SW to W at 20 - 36 mph. Surface wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>These
instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, October 22, 2010.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>=================================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Coast Range<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 601 and 612<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5
below.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 602 and 603<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River
in Zone 603.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 615, 616,
618, 619, and 620<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of the
North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Cascades<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>All zones except
zone 611<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind
SSRAs for smoke to dissipate. Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning
within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606. Avoid ignitions north of T24S
in Zone 616.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 611<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Siskiyous<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>==============================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Call the
smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> discuss
burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> discuss daily
burning. If the forecaster is not available, <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> leave a
message and he will return your call as soon as possible.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Avoid calling
between 2 to 2:30 p.m. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The forecast
is available on the Internet at: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure
your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>5. STANDARD
GUIDANCE MATRIX:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * Greater than
5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind
SSRA. Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 500
ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * 3000 - 5000
ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind
SSRA. Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 750
ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * Less than
3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind
SSRA. Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 750
ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * All
exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> prior to
ignition.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
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