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<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED: Saturday,
October 23, 2010 2:30 PM Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>1. DISCUSSION
AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>SUNDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpFirst style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Wet and windy weather is in store for all of
Oregon on Sunday. A warm front will renew the steady rain across western
Oregon tonight (Saturday night). The third, and strongest, in a series of cold
fronts will come onshore early Sunday morning and sweep across the entire state
by evening. Rainfall totals from this system will likely range from around one
inch to more than two inches across western Oregon, with the heaviest rain
likely on western mountain slopes.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>The low-pressure center is forecast to become
quite intense but track well to the northwest, to near the northern tip of
Vancouver Island, British Columbia, by Sunday night. The trailing cold front
will bring strong southerly winds to all of Oregon. Gusts to 60 mph are
possible for coastal areas, with sections of the coast range and higher
elevations of the Cascades likely getting gusts over 50 mph. Gusts to near 40
mph are likely across the inland valleys. In the wake of the cold front,
blustery winds will likely turn more southwesterly. Showers will be frequent
with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Snow levels will rapidly drop, with
accumulating snow likely, above 4000 feet north and 4500 feet south, Sunday
night. South-southwesterly transport winds and high mixing heights will provide
good smoke dispersal conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>A strong westerly jet stream, aimed right at
Oregon, will continue significant shower activity Monday and Tuesday, with
additional snowfall likely above 4000 feet north and 4500 feet south. Rain and
mountain snow showers are forecast to taper off late Tuesday, as the flow aloft
turns northwesterly and more stable. A weak and transitory upper-level ridge
should bring one dry day, on Wednesday, with warming aloft lowering mixing
heights. Smoke dispersal conditions should remain good on Monday and then
deteriorate to fair on Tuesday and marginal on Wednesday.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormalCxSpLast style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 601-612
(North Coast Range and Cascades):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
above 5000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
WSW at 25 - 45 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind SSW
to WSW at 15 - 25 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
above 5000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
WSW at 25 - 45 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind
similar to morning.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
remains above 5000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
WSW at 23 - 41 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind
similar to afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 615-623
(South Coast Range and Cascades):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
above 5000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
WSW at 30 - 50 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind SW
to WSW at 15 - 25 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
above 5000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
WSW at 25 - 45 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind
similar to morning.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
3500 - 4500 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind
WSW at 20 - 36 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind
similar to afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MONDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
4000 to 5000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind WSW to W at 18 - 32 mph. Surface wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 18
mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>TUESDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
2400 to 3400 ft during the morning rising to 3400 to 4400 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph during the morning
becoming WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind S to SW
at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the
afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>WEDNESDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning rising to 2000 to
3000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the
morning becoming SE to S at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind
light and variable.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>These
instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday, October 24, 2010.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>=================================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Coast Range<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>All Zones<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind
SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Cascades<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>All zones except
Zone 610 and 611<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind
SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 610 and 611<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Siskiyous<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind
SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>==============================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Call the
smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> discuss
burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> discuss daily
burning. If the forecaster is not available, <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> leave a
message and he will return your call as soon as possible.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Avoid calling
between 2 to 2:30 p.m. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The forecast
is available on the Internet at: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure
your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>5. STANDARD
GUIDANCE MATRIX:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * Greater than
5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind
SSRA. Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 500
ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * 3000 - 5000
ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind
SSRA. Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 750
ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * Less than
3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind
SSRA. Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 750
ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * All
exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> prior to
ignition.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
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