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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED: Monday, November 15, 2010 2:30 PM Jim Little</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:42.0pt;text-indent:-24.0pt'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>1.</span><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'> </span><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:42.0pt'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:42.0pt'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>A broad flat ridge is centered off the Oregon Washington coast. Upper level flow is from the west-northwest over the region. Low level (transport) flow will be generally from the west or northwest except areas of north-northeast flow over the south coast range. There is still a chance for a shower or two in the morning in the north, otherwise look for mostly cloudy skies in the north and partly cloudy skies in the south. Smoke dispersal conditions will be mostly fair.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>A deep low, both at the surface and aloft develops in the Gulf of Alaska and begins to move toward the Pacific Northwest Wednesday. A Pacific cold front will push into Washington then drop southward, reaching NW Oregon by late morning. The front will spread rain across the most of western Oregon by Thursday morning. Snow levels will drop in the Cascades. Latest models suggest a snow level of about 3500 feet in the north and 4000 feet in the south by Thursday morning. Additional cold air may drop snow levels a little lower by Friday morning, but moisture will be limited by then so little snow is likely. Mixing heights should allow for generally fair to good smoke dispersal conditions throughout the outlook period. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind NW at 18 - 32 mph.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind WNW to NW at 10 - 22 mph.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind decreases to WNW to NW at 9 - 15 mph.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind decreases to W to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind becomes light and variable.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 3300 - 4300 ft.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind W to NW at 10 - 20 mph.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind W to NW at 10 - 20 mph.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height rising to 4400 - 5000 ft.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind decreases to W to NW at 6 - 12 mph.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind decreases to W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 2200 - 3200 ft.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind shifts to SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind becomes light and variable.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind similar to morning.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind similar to afternoon.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind similar to afternoon.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 3300 - 4300 ft.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height lowers to 1700 - 2700 ft.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind becomes light and variable.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind similar to afternoon.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind similar to afternoon.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>WEDNESDAY</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>In the north mixing height 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon. In the south mixing height 1700 to 2700 ft during the morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 18 - 30 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind S to SSW at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>THURSDAY</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 to 2400 ft by late morning rising to 3400 to 4400 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SSW at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>FRIDAY</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 16 mph. Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 12 mph.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, November 16, 2010.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>=================================================================</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Coast Range</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 601 and 612</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 602 and 603</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603. Call the forecaster.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Cascades</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 617, and 623</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate. South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 610 and 611</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 616</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 620 and 622</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>No burning allowed.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Siskiyous</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>==============================================================</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available, </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The forecast is available on the Internet at: </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind SSRA. Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind SSRA. Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind SSRA. Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> prior to ignition.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>