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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED: Wednesday, November 17, 2010 2:30 PM Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>THURSDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpFirst style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>A vigorous cold front will move east of northern zones in the pre-dawn hours and continue southeastward across the southern zones by midday. Blustery winds will taper off, with steady precipitation turning to showers, in the wake of the front. A very cold upper-level trough will drop southward along the British Columbia coastline, to just off the Pacific Northwest coast, with strong westerly flow aloft developing over Oregon. Snow levels will rapidly drop with accumulating snow likely above about 2000 feet north and 3000 feet south. Expect good smoke dispersal conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>A very cold upper-level trough will remain over the region during the outlook period with generally fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>A surface low-pressure center will slowly sag southward, to just off the central Oregon coast, on Friday, with a strong southerly component to the transport winds. Snow levels will drop to about 2500 feet with showers, mainly over higher terrain. Little change in the overall pattern is forecast for Saturday and Sunday, with snow levels dropping to around 1500-2000 feet. Transport winds will likely maintain a southerly component Saturday and possible turn more westerly Sunday.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormalCxSpLast style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height above 5000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind SW at 18 - 32 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind S to SW at 9 - 15 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height above 5000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind SSW to SW at 14 - 28 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind similar to afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind similar to afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height above 5000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind SW to WSW at 15 - 29 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height above 5000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind similar to morning.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind SSE to SW at 5 - 9 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind decreases to SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height above 5000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind SW to W at 12 - 24 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height above 5000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind SSW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 16 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind similar to afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height above 5000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind SW to WSW at 15 - 29 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height above 5000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind decreases to SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors SW to W and controlled by local terrain.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind SW at 60 - 80 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind similar to afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>FRIDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 3100 to 4100 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SSW at 10 - 22 mph. Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SATURDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 2100 to 3100 ft during the morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph. Surface wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SUNDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, November 18, 2010.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>=================================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Coast Range<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>All Zones<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Cascades<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>All zones except zone 611<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 611<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Siskiyous<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>==============================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available, <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The forecast is available on the Internet at: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind SSRA. Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind SSRA. Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind SSRA. Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> prior to ignition.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>