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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED: Thursday, February 3, 2011 2:30 PM Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'>The National Weather Service has issued an Air Stagnation Advisory for the southwestern valleys and for south-central Oregon through 10 am Monday. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'>FRIDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'>A persistent upper-level ridge of high pressure, which has been over the region for several days, will get flattened slightly by a weather system riding over the top of it and into southern British Columbia. Forecast models show rain moving across western Washington with a chance of light rain spreading as far south as about Newport, along the coast, and across the northern Cascades. Elsewhere, expect just increased cloudiness.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'>Low level flow should turn mostly onshore with southwesterly transport winds across the northern zones and very light north to northwesterly flow over the southern zones. Mixing heights should improve slightly, mainly over the northern zones, where smoke dispersal conditions may improve to marginal.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY) <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'>On Saturday the upper-level ridge is forecast to retreat just far enough offshore to allow a chance of rain to extend southward across most of Oregon, in an increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Rainfall amounts should be mostly less than one-tenth of an inch with little to no rain forecast for most southwestern zones. The snow level will drop to about 6000 feet north and to about 7000 feet south. Slightly cooler air aloft will nudge mixing heights up just a bit with marginal smoke dispersal conditions for most areas. Northern zones should have west to southwest transport winds with northwest transport winds across southern zones.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'>Northwesterly flow aloft will continue on Sunday, with minimal change in low-level transport winds, as the upper-level ridge slowly builds back over the state. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with a continued chance of light rain and high elevation snow. Precipitation totals should be less than one-tenth of an inch, with the best chance of rain or snow over the northern Cascades. Mixing heights will likely lower slightly with a return to mostly poor smoke dispersal conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'>On Monday, the upper-level ridge is forecast to back away from the coastline, with another upper-level disturbance dropping southeastward across eastern Washington and northeastern Oregon. That will renew the threat of showers across mainly the northern and eastern zones with the snow level dropping to 4000 feet north and 5000 feet south. Colder air aloft will lift mixing heights with improving smoke dispersal conditions in the afternoon. Transport winds will be mostly southwest to west across the northern zones and northwest to north across the southern zones.</span><span style='font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 601-612 (North Coast Range and Cascades):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 1600 - 2600 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind similar to morning.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 1000 - 1700 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1000 - 1600 ft by late morning.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind shifts to NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind similar to morning.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind similar to afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SATURDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 1800 to 2800 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SUNDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1900 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind light and variable.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>MONDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning rising to 2400 to 3400 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, February 4, 2011.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>=================================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Coast Range<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 602, 603, and 620<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>No burning allowed. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning in or near corridors. Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603. Some burning allowed south of the Rogue River in Zone 620. Call the forecaster.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 615<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 616 west of R8W<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 618 and 619<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Cascades<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 616, 617, and 623<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate. From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart. South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart. South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 610 and 611<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 620 and 622<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>No burning allowed.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Siskiyous<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>==============================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available, <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> The forecast is available on the Internet at: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind SSRA. Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind SSRA. Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind SSRA. Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> prior to ignition.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></body></html>