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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>ISSUED: Saturday, May 7, 2011 2:30 PM Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:115%;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>-<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>Issued 7-days-a-week through the spring burning season - <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>SUNDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='line-height:115%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'>An unseasonably cold upper-level trough is forecast to move over the Pacific Northwest. Rain and snow showers will be widespread with precipitation totals ranging from around one-tenth of an inch to more than one-quarter of an inch. The snow level will drop to 3000-4000 feet with surface temperatures about 10 degrees below average. Cold air aloft should make for good mixing with onshore transport winds veering to northwesterly.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='line-height:115%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Courier New"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='line-height:115%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'>On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to drop southeastward, to over Nevada, with a drier north-northeasterly flow aloft over Oregon. Look for decreasing showers, with partial clearing. Surface temperatures will remain well below normal, with minor warming aloft leading to slightly lower afternoon mixing heights. Transport winds will turn mostly northerly.</span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='line-height:115%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='line-height:115%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'>Tuesday looks dry and significantly warmer, as a transitory upper-level ridge moves onshore and over Oregon. Residual low-level moisture may lead to areas of brief morning valley fog or low clouds, with skies becoming mostly sunny. After a chilly morning, with poor mixing, more surface heating will improve afternoon smoke dispersal conditions to fair to good. Daytime highs should recover to near or slightly above normal. Light mostly northerly morning transport winds will turn northwesterly in the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='line-height:115%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='line-height:115%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Courier New"'>The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift eastward, to over Idaho, by Wednesday morning, with an increasing southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. The latest computer guidance is forecasting a cold front to spread rain onshore, around midday, and across western Oregon by evening. Ahead of the cold front, some sunshine should help temperatures warm to near normal north and above normal south. Good mixing is expected for eastern zones, which will likely see some filtered sunshine, but mixing heights may be slightly suppressed by cloud-cover over the coast range. Southwesterly morning transport winds should veer to more westerly by late-afternoon. Afternoon rainfall amounts should range from one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch north with most southern zones picking up less than one-tenth of an inch. The snow level will drop to about 4500 feet north and 5500 feet south late.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>2. DISPERSION<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 601-612 (North Coast Range and Cascades):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind shifts to NW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>MORNING<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind WNW to NW at 8 - 12 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>AFTERNOON<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind NW to NNW at 10 - 20 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>EVENING<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Transport wind NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>OUTLOOK:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>MONDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NNW to N at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind W to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>TUESDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3600 to 4600 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>WEDNESDAY<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming WSW to W at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday, May 8, 2011.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>=================================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Coast Range<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 601 and 612<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less. Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612. Call the forecaster.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 602, 603, and 620<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Avoid burning in or near corridors. Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603. Call the forecaster. Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River in Zone 620. Call the forecaster.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 615, 618, and 619<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 616 west of R8W<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 616 east of R9W<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Cascades<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 611, 616, 617, and 623<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate. From T12S through T17S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart. South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 610<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Zone 620 and 622<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Siskiyous<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>==============================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>4. SPECIAL NOTE:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available, <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> The forecast is available on the Internet at: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind SSRA. Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind SSRA. Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> downwind SSRA. Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> Example: 750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'> prior to ignition.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>