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<p class=MsoNormal>SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>9:00 AM PDT WED AUG 4 2010<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>BURN ADVISORY:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are
from noon to 6:30pm.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> Prep burning is not allowed. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> Propane flaming is allowed from 2:00pm to 5:00pm. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>WEATHER DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>A broad upper-level trough remains over the Pacific
Northwest. An upper-level disturbance is triggering thundershowers over the
northern Washington Cascades this morning with a more stable west-southwesterly
flow aloft over Oregon. Little change in the upper-level weather pattern is
forecast today with shower and thundershower activity possibly sagging
southward to near the Washington/Oregon border this afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Onshore flow brought a fresh surge of cool marine air inland
last night. Visible satellite imagery showed marine low clouds extending from
the coast to the crest of the Cascades this morning and extending southward
across the entire Willamette Valley and into Douglas County.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>The Salem sounding this morning showed a stable atmosphere
with the moist marine layer extending from the surface up to about 3500 feet.
Morning low clouds should give way to mostly sunny skies by early afternoon.
The onshore flow is forecast to be slightly weaker today, so even though the
morning clouds will burn off later, afternoon temperatures should recover to
about where they were on Tuesday. Once again, transport winds may turn just
enough onshore to allow for limited open burning later this afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>TODAY’S FORECAST:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Morning clouds, then sunny and warm. After reaching 82
degrees on Tuesday, Salem's high temperature today will be near 82 degrees
again today. The mixing height will not climb to 3000 feet until about 2 p.m.
and will likely top out at around 3800 feet around 5 p.m. A cooling sea breeze
will drop the mixing height to 2000 feet by shortly before sunset. Surface and
transport winds will be light NW to N this morning, then increase to NNW 5-10
this afternoon and become WNW near 10 mph this evening. Relative humidity will
drop to 50% by 2 p.m. and to near 40% by late this afternoon. The ventilation
index will climb to about 30 late this afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Silverton area sunset tonight: 8:29 pm <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>THREE-HOURLY DATA: <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> 11am 2pm 5pm
8pm <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> Temperature: 67 76 82
76 <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> Relative Humidity: 63% 48% 40%
48% <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> Surface Wind Direction: 360 340 330
280 <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> Surface Wind Speed: 4 5 7
7 <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> Transport Wind Direction: 340 350 340
300 <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> Transport Wind Speed: 4 6 8
10 <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> Estimated Mixing Height: 2000 2800 3800
2000<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> Ventilation Index: 8 17 30
20 <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>EXTENDED DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Little change to the overall weather pattern is expected
through Friday, with a weak upper-level trough remaining over the Pacific
Northwest. Weak onshore flow will maintain the pattern of morning clouds with
afternoon sunshine. Ventilation conditions may allow for limited afternoon
open burning each day.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Even cooler temperatures are forecast for this weekend, with
a weak cold front likely making it onshore late Saturday and early Sunday.
Moisture with this system is very limited, but it may bring some drizzle to the
coast and possibly the Willamette Valley Sunday morning.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>EXTENDED FORECAST: <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Thursday: Morning clouds, then partly cloudy. Wind: NW 5-15
mph. 55/83<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Friday: Morning clouds, then partly cloudy. Wind: NW 5-15
mph. 55/82<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Saturday: Morning clouds, then partly cloudy. 55/77<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Sunday: Chance of morning drizzle. Partly sunny in the
afternoon. 54/75 <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Notes:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height
at which the<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> potential temperature exceeds the potential
temperature at the<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> surface. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> As a practical matter it is the approximate height
to which a <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry
fuels, and <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> winds less than about 15mph. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the
mixing height, <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of
the layer. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer
times <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> the transport wind speed divided by 1000. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind
direction. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> At a specific point surface winds are highly
dependent on local<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> terrain conditions.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>This forecast is provided under an agreement between the
Oregon Department of<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For
information contact ODA at 503-986-4701.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>ODF Meteorologist<o:p></o:p></p>
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