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<p class=MsoNormal>SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>12:00 PM PDT WED AUG 4 2010<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>BURN ADVISORY:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are
from now to 6:30pm.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> Prep burning is not allowed. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> Propane flaming is allowed from 2:00pm to 5:00pm. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>WEATHER DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>An upper-level disturbance triggered thundershowers over the
northern Washington Cascades early this morning, while a more stable
west-southwesterly flow aloft kept conditions dry over Oregon, except for a few
patches of drizzle. Little change in the upper-level weather pattern is
forecast today with a few afternoon showers and thundershowers likely
developing over the Washington Cascades and possibly as far south as extreme
northern Oregon.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Marine low clouds continued to blanket much of the
Willamette Valley at midday but were breaking up over the coast range. Skies
were generally sunny over the remainder of the state. Over in central Oregon,
smoke from a wildfire, just south of Sisters Oregon, was covering much of
northern Deschutes County and streaming northward over southern Jefferson
County. It is unlikely that any smoke from that fire will push west of the
Cascades today. Skies should soon begin clearing over the Willamette Valley
with considerable sunshine likely after about 2 p.m.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed only minor
gradient-stacking of the onshore flow across western Oregon, which could be
overcome by afternoon heating. However, a thermal trough over extreme
southwestern Oregon was helping to create a strong northerly gradient, known as
the “Medford Draw,” across western Oregon. That will likely keep
surface and transport winds too northerly for open burning this afternoon.
However, direct monitoring of the transport winds, via pibals, will begin at 1
p.m.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>TODAY’S FORECAST:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Mostly cloudy early this afternoon with clearing skies in
the mid-to-late afternoon. Salem's high temperature today will be near 80
degrees. The mixing height will not climb to 3000 feet until about 2 p.m. and
will likely peak near 3800 feet around 5 p.m. A cooling sea breeze will drop
the mixing height to 2000 feet by shortly before sunset. Surface and transport
winds will be light NW to NE through early this afternoon, then become mostly
northerly and increase to 5-12 mph in the mid-to-late afternoon. Surface and
transport winds will become NW 5-12 mph this evening. Relative humidity will
drop to 50% by 3 p.m. and to near 42% by late this afternoon. The ventilation
index will climb to about 30 late this afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Silverton area sunset tonight: 8:29 pm <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>EXTENDED DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Little change to the overall weather pattern is expected
through Friday, with a weak upper-level trough remaining over the Pacific
Northwest. The onshore flow is forecast to increase, which may give afternoon
transport winds more of a westerly component both Thursday and Friday. That increases
the chances for open burning opportunities.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast for this weekend,
as the upper-level trough strengthens and swings a weak cold front onshore.
Moisture with this system is very limited, but it may bring some drizzle to the
coast and possibly the Willamette Valley Sunday morning. A dry and mild
northwesterly flow aloft is forecast for early next week with continued onshore
flow possibly providing enough ventilation for open burning.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>EXTENDED FORECAST: <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Thursday: Morning clouds, then partly cloudy. Wind: NW 5-15
mph. 55/83<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Friday: Morning clouds, then partly cloudy. Wind: NW 5-15
mph. 55/82<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Saturday: Morning clouds, then partly cloudy. 55/77<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Sunday: Chance of morning drizzle. Partly sunny in the
afternoon. 54/75 <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Notes:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height
at which the<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> potential temperature exceeds the potential
temperature at the<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> surface. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> As a practical matter it is the approximate height
to which a <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry
fuels, and <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> winds less than about 15mph. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the
mixing height, <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of
the layer. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer
times <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> the transport wind speed divided by 1000. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind
direction. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> At a specific point surface winds are highly
dependent on local<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> terrain conditions.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>This forecast is provided under an agreement between the
Oregon Department of<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For
information contact ODA at 503-986-4701.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>ODF Meteorologist<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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