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<p class=MsoNormal>SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>12:00 PM PDT THU AUG 5 2010<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>BURN ADVISORY:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are
from<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> 1:00pm to 6:30pm.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> Prep burning is allowed from 1:00pm to 3:00pm with a 50
acre limit. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> Propane flaming is allowed from 1:00pm to 5:00pm. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>WEATHER DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>An upper-level trough remains over the Pacific Northwest.
The main circulation center is over western Washington. A weaker mid-level
circulation center is over southwestern Oregon. The Salem sounding this
morning showed easterly winds from 5000 feet up to about 8000 feet, which
circulated some wildfire smoke, from the Rooster Rock Fire in central Oregon,
over the Cascades and across the Willamette Valley during the night.
Nephelometer readings in the northern Cascades and in the Willamette Valley
remain slightly elevated late this morning, and skies are still a bit hazy.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>The surface flow is onshore with 2.7 mb from Newport to
Salem and 1.4 mb from Salem to Redmond. Visible satellite imagery shows low
clouds have retreated to just along the coast with sunny skies over the
interior of the state. Temperatures in the Willamette Valley are running as
much as 10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Increased sunshine will result in
valley temperatures climbing into the mid 80s this afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Air quality should begin improving this afternoon, as both
upper-level disturbances slowly drift eastward. Winds will shift to
northwesterly, below about 5000 feet, as onshore flow increases across westerly
Oregon. However, the winds above 5000 feet may continue to circulate some
elevated wildfire smoke over the region through this evening, before turning
onshore tonight and Friday. Transport winds will need to be monitored for the
possibility of open burning this afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>TODAY’S FORECAST:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Mostly sunny, hazy, and warmer. Salem's high temperature
today will be near 86 degrees. The mixing height will climb to 3000 feet about
1 p.m. and will likely top out near 4500 feet around 5 p.m. A stronger evening
sea breeze is expected today with the mixing height dropping to near 2000 feet
by sunset. Surface and transport winds will increase to NW 5-10 this afternoon
and NW 7-12 this evening. Relative humidity is forecast to drop to 50% by 2
p.m. and to near 36% by 5 p.m. The ventilation index will climb to about 45
late this afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Silverton area sunset tonight: 8:28 pm <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>EXTENDED DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>The upper-level troughs are both forecast to finally shift
east of the Cascades Friday with the winds at transport level and aloft turning
onshore. That should clear the skies of wildfire smoke and may provide an open
burning opportunity Friday afternoon. Morning clouds will likely penetrate
inland to the Cascade crest with high temperatures cooling back into the low
80s across the Willamette valley. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Stronger onshore flow will bring further cooling over the
weekend, with a weak cold front forecast to come onshore Saturday evening.
Marine clouds will be extensive by Sunday morning with local drizzle possible.
High temperatures should fall to about 10 degrees below normal by Sunday.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Another upper-level trough is forecast to drop into the
region early next week for continued cooler than normal conditions and strong
onshore flow. Open burning opportunities may be possible, if the deep marine
layer does not create too much gradient-stacking. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>EXTENDED FORECAST: <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Friday: Morning clouds, then partly cloudy. Wind: NW 5-15
mph. 55/82<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Saturday: Morning clouds, then partly cloudy. 55/77<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Sunday: Chance of morning drizzle. Partly sunny in the
afternoon. 54/75<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Monday: Morning clouds. Afternoon clearing. 54/78 <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Notes:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height
at which the<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> potential temperature exceeds the potential
temperature at the<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> surface. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> As a practical matter it is the approximate height
to which a <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry
fuels, and <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> winds less than about 15mph. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the
mixing height, <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of
the layer. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer
times <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> the transport wind speed divided by 1000. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind
direction. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> At a specific point surface winds are highly
dependent on local<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal> terrain conditions.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>This forecast is provided under an agreement between the
Oregon Department of<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For
information contact ODA at 503-986-4701.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal>ODF Meteorologist<o:p></o:p></p>
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