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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNoSpacing>SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>8:50 AM PDT TUE JUL 12, 2011<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>BURN ADVISORY:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are 9:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>WEATHER DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>An unseasonably strong upper-level trough is centered about 300 miles off the northern Oregon Coast this morning. An associated cold front was bringing cloudy skies and areas of light rain to the region. Mid-morning satellite imagery showed solid cloud-cover extending from well offshore eastward, across the Cascades, and into Central Oregon. The northern Willamette Valley has already received around one-tenth of an inch of rain. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>The upper-level trough is not forecast to move much today, so light rain should continue, at times, under cloudy skies. Temperatures will be about 15 degrees below normal.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>TODAY’S FORECAST:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Cloudy with light rain at times. Additional rainfall totals around could exceed one-tenth (.10”) of an inch.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Surface winds: SSW 5 mph this morning; SW 5-8 mph this afternoon<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Transport winds: SSW 6-10 mph this morning; SW 10 mph this afternoon<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Salem’s forecast high temperature: 66 degrees<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Maximum mixing height: 4500 feet<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Relative humidity: Remains above 65% all day <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Salem sunset tonight: 8:58pm <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>THREE-HOURLY DATA: <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> 11am 2pm 5pm 8pm <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> Temperature: 62 64 66 62 <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> Relative Humidity: 78% 76% 68% 78% <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> Surface Wind Direction: 200 210 230 260 <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> Surface Wind Speed: 5 5 6 7 <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> Transport Wind Direction: 200 220 250 260 <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> Transport Wind Speed: 7 8 10 10 <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> Estimated Mixing Height: 2700 4000 4500 3800<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> Ventilation Index: 19 32 45 38<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>EXTENDED DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>The upper-level trough is forecast to moves over the state on Wednesday, before weakening Thursday and Friday. Look for showers to continue on Wednesday with some drying and warming on Thursday. By Friday, temperatures should recover to within about 5 degrees of normal with some afternoon sunshine.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Notes:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> surface. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> As a practical matter it is the approximate height to which a <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> winds less than about 15mph. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> the transport wind speed divided by 1000. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> terrain conditions.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Pete Parsons<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>ODF Meteorologist<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>