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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNoSpacing>SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>11:45 AM PDT MON JUL 18, 2011<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>BURN ADVISORY:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Recommended burn times for agricultural burning are from now to 7:00pm.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Prep burning is not allowed. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Propane flaming is allowed from 2:00pm to 5:00pm. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>WEATHER DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Upper low circulating off the northern California coast will continue to give some showers to the area through this afternoon before weakening and shifting slowly eastward on Tuesday. Expect a little more sunshine today but still generally cloudy skies. Temperatures will warm over yesterday’s cool 60s temperatures to get into the 70s this afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Satellite picture and radar show clouds and showers developing and moving up from the south late this morning. With the likelihood of showers increasing I’ve lowered expected temperatures and increased humidities this afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Pressure gradients are slowly increasing onshore with .8 mb onshore from Newport to Salem and 1.2 mb onshore from Salem to Redmond.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>TODAY’S FORECAST:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Mostly cloudy with scattered showers this afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Salem's high temperature today will be near 74.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Relative humidity: Minimum relative humidity 58%.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Surface winds: NW to N at 5-8 mph.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Transport winds: NW’erly at 6-10 mph during the afternoon and evening.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Maximum mixing height: 4500 ft by late afternoon.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Sunset tonight: 8:53 pm <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>THREE-HOURLY DATA: <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> 2pm 5pm 8pm <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> Temperature: 71 74 68 <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> Relative Humidity: 63% 58% 71%<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> Surface Wind Direction: 340 310 290<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> Surface Wind Speed: 5 7 7 <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> Transport Wind Direction: 330 320 310 <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> Transport Wind Speed: 5 7 10<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> Estimated Mixing Height: 3500 4500 2000<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> Ventilation Index: 18 32 20 <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>EXTENDED DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Even though today’s upper low gradually weakens and moves through on Tuesday, the upper level pattern will remain generally trough-like through the week. Expect continued cloudy skies and a possible shower, especially during the morning under onshore flow. Clouds will break up more in the afternoon but temperatures will likely remain 5-10 degrees below normal. Another impulse moves through the trough pattern early Thursday, increasing the onshore flow and bringing another chance of light showers. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>The National Weather Service’s digital forecast is available at:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text">http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.90549606158295&lon=-122.8106689453125&site=pqr&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Notes:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> 1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> potential temperature exceeds the potential temperature at the<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height to<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, and <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> winds less than about 15mph.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> 2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> 3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> the transport wind speed divided by 1000.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> 4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on local<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing> terrain conditions.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA at 503-986-4701.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>Nick Yonker<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing>ODF Meteorologist<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>