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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><pre>SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>12:00 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2011<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>BURN ADVISORY: <o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Agricultural burning burning is not recommended.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Prep burning is allowed from now until 2:00pm with a 50 acre limit. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Propane flaming is allowed from now until 6:00pm. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>WEATHER DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Latest satellite pictures show clear skies over virtually all of Oregon with no evidence<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>yet of thunderstorm development east of the Cascades. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Marion County and vicinity temperatures were mostly in the upper 60's and low 70's as of<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>late morning, although an amateur weather station in Sublimity was reporting 76 degrees. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Surface wind reports were all light - under 5 mph - and were generally northerly. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Pressure gradients remain onshore. Pressure has risin slightly at Newport but has fallen<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>at Redmond during the late morning hours. Pressure gradients as of 11am included: <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Newport to Salem, 1.3 mb onshore; Salem to Redmond, 2.2 mb onshore; and Newport to<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Redmond, 3.5 mb onshore. Thus gradient stacking to the east continues.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Short range computer models are split on the gradient stacking issue one showing a<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>continuation, the other showing slightly stronger gradients to the west of the Willamette<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Valley late this afternoon. We will continue to monitor. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST:<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Sunny and warm.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Salem's high temperature today will be near 86.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Minimum relative humidity 29%.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Surface winds: N 5-7mph slowly backing to NW 7-9 during the afternoon <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Transport winds: N 5-8 slowly backing to NW during the afternoon<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Maximum mixing height: 5000 feet <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Sunset tonight: 8:39 pm <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>THREE-HOURLY DATA: <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> 2pm 5pm 8pm <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> Temperature: 80 85 77 <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> Relative Humidity: 37% 30% 40% <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> Surface Wind Direction: 340 330 300 <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> Surface Wind Speed: 6 7 8 <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> Transport Wind Direction: 340 330 300 <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> Transport Wind Speed: 5 5 5 <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> Estimated Mixing Height: 4200 5000 1000<o:p></o:p></pre><pre> Ventilation Index: 21 25 5<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>EXTENDED DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>An onshore flow pattern should continue through the week with minor upper level<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>disturbances moving west to east mostly to the north of the area. This should present<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>occasional burning opportunities that need to be assessed on a day to day basis.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Temperatures should be near to slightly above average and no rain is likely through<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>through the week and into the weekend.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre> <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>The National Weather Service’s digital forecast is available at <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.905&lon=-122.810">http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.905&lon=-122.810</a>.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre> <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Notes: <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> potential temperature exceeds the equivalent potential temperature <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> and winds less than about 15mph. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> the transport wind speed divided by 1000. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> local terrain conditions.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre> <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>at 503-986-4701. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Jim Little<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>ODF Meteorologist<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>