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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><pre>SILVERTON HILLS FIELD BURNING FORECAST<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY WEATHER OFFICE<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>12:00 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>BURN ADVISORY: <o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Agricultural burning burning is not recommended.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Prep burning is not allowed. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Propane flaming is allowed from 1:00pm to 5:00pm. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>WEATHER DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>A weak upper level disturbance moving through a broad but weak trough has brought mid and<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>high clouds to Washington but only some widely scattered clouds to Oregon. The extensive<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>low cloudiness seen earlier on satellite pictures has mostly dissipated and fair weather<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>is the rule over the region. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Temperatures are in the upper 60's and low 70's as of late morning in the central<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Willamette Valley. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Gradient stacking east is still quite strong. As of 11am there was a total of 4.7mb<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>between Newport and Redmond but 3.3mb of that was to the east of Salem and the<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Newport/Salem gradient was only 1.4 mb. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>As temperatures warm in the Valley pressures should drop and the gradient stacking should<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>even out somewhat. We will monitor pressures and gradients carefully through the<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>afternoon. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST:<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Salem's high temperature today will be near 80.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Minimum relative humidity today should be about 31%.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Surface winds: Mostly westerly this afternoon 5-7mph. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Transport winds: Becoming WNW 3-6 and increasing during the early evening.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Estimated mixing height as of noon: 2100 feet. Forecast maximum 4000 feet. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Sunset tonight: 8:38 pm <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>THREE-HOURLY DATA: <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> 2pm 5pm 8pm <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> Temperature: 77 80 73 <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> Relative Humidity: 40% 34% 44% <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> Surface Wind Direction: 300 300 290 <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> Surface Wind Speed: 5 6 7 <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> Transport Wind Direction: 290 300 300 <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> Transport Wind Speed: 3 6 13 <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> Estimated Mixing Height: 3700 4000 1500<o:p></o:p></pre><pre> Ventilation Index: 11 24 20<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>EXTENDED DISCUSSION:<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>The general pattern of weak troughiness over the western United states will continue<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>through the week. Weather should stay dry. A marine push today or tonight would leave<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>a<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>strong inversion over the valley and strong gradient stacking east would likely preclude<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>burning tomorrow, but the pattern is generally favorable for potential burn opportunities<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Thursday or Friday.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre> <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>The National Weather Service’s digital forecast is available at: <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.905&lon=-122.810.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre> <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>The National Weather Service’s digital forecast is available <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.905&lon=-122.810">http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.905&lon=-122.810</a>.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre> <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Notes: <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>1. Mixing height, as used here, is the lowest height at which the <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> potential temperature exceeds the equivalent potential temperature <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> at the surface. As a practical matter it is the approximate height <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> to which a smoke plume will rise assuming good ignition, dry fuels, <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> and winds less than about 15mph. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>2. Transport winds are a layer average through the mixing height, <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> weighted slightly toward the winds at the top of the layer. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>3. Ventilation Index is the height of the mixing layer times <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> the transport wind speed divided by 1000. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>4. Surface wind direction is the general expected wind direction. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> At a specific point surface winds are highly dependent on <o:p></o:p></pre><pre> local terrain conditions.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre> <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>This forecast is provided under an agreement between the Oregon Department of<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Agriculture and the Oregon Department of Forestry. For information contact ODA<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>at 503-986-4701. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Jim Little<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>ODF Meteorologist<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>